The Phillies will look to earn at least a split of their four-game set with the Cardinals in St. Louis tonight. Last night, they fell short by a 5-2 final after failing to win back-to-back road games for the first time this season. Tonight, they will send Vince Velasquez (0-0, 6.75 ERA) to the mound against Johan Oviedo (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Velasquez will once again fill in for Matt Moore, who is working his way back into shape following a stint in COVID protocol. Oviedo will make his first start of the season.

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds for the third game of this four-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

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Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Cardinals odds for this April 28, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Yankees -1.5 (+125) -132 O 9 (-110)
Phillies +1.5 (-148) +114 U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction

Tuesday’s loss at St. Louis was yet another lackluster effort at the plate for the Phillies, who have now scored just two runs in three straight games. While a team with just six runs and 16 hits across three games hardly inspires confidence in an over bet, it is somewhat reassuring to know the Phillies have allowed five or more runs in six of their last seven games and have also played more games over the total (13) than under it (10) this season.

The other two times this season that Philadelphia has mustered six or less runs over a three-game span, they bounced back in the following game to score nine and seven runs, respectively, the next time out. The Phillies’ last six Game 3s of a series have produced an average of 9.3 runs per game, as well.

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Perhaps adding some confidence to an over play is that Velasquez will take the ball for the Phillies. He was decent in a four-inning effort on Friday night in Colorado, but his inability to get deep into games could provide an opportunity for some runs here. More on that in a moment.

In his last two starts against the Cardinals, the righty has allowed nine runs in 10 1/3 innings pitched, including eight walks and five home runs. In Velasquez’s  four career games against the Cards, they have scored an average of six runs per game.

Velasquez often struggles with command and with the long ball. Both could be his undoing tonight against a Cardinals team that has hit the 12th-most homers per game this season. He also potentially exposes a recently dreadful bullpen, as he almost never pitches deep into games. He has not topped six innings in any of his last ten starts, only lasting more than five innings once.

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The Cards send 23 year old RHP Johan Oviedo to the mound tonight to make his first start of the season after 4.2 scoreless innings in his only appearance with the Cardinals this season. It’s hard to imagine St. Louis will get a ton of length out him, potentially problematic as the Cards try to navigate 17 straight days of games. That means the Phils will get some cracks at a St. Louis bullpen which has a bloated 5.54 ERA this season after a win.

The Phillies have played 13 of their last 19 games over the total after starting the season with four straight under the number.

They have also cashed eight overs in their last 11 games after allowing five or more runs the previous time out.

 

Phillies vs.  Cardinals Betting Pick

We are expecting a humid night in St. Louis to help some hot home run hitters on both teams grab us some chunk runs today and send this one over the low total against the last arms in both teams’ current rotations.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Pick: OVER

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