The Phillies will look to avoid a four-game sweep this afternoon, while the Mets look to avoid another potential weather postponement and a third Jacob deGrom loss to start the season.
As New York looks to break out the brooms when they send one of the game’s elite pitchers to the hill, let’s take a look at our top Phillies vs. Mets prop picks for this April 15, 2021 MLB matchup.
Phillies vs. Mets Player Prop Picks (April 15, 2021)
Jacob deGrom’s run of incredibly poor run support and general bad luck continued during his last start, one in which he went eight innings and struck out 14 Marlins in a losing effort. This season, deGrom (0-1, 0.64 ERA) has surrendered just one earned run over 14 innings while striking out 21 and walking just two batters, yet the Mets are winless in his two starts.
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One of those starts came against this Phillies lineup, one that he mastered over six innings of shutout baseball. Curiously, Mets manager Luis Rojas opted to remove deGrom at just 77 pitches, opening a path for a late Phillies’ comeback win.
Meanwhile, the Phils will send Zach Eflin (0-0, 3.46 ERA) to the mound. Eflin was brilliant in his first start of the season against the Braves but wasn’t as sharp six days later against the same Atlanta lineup.
With the pitching matchup out of the way, let’s jump into our top Phillies vs. Mets player prop picks of the day.
Francisco Lindor to Get a Hit AND Mets to Win (-120)
Well, you certainly can’t wager on the Phillies here, given their play this week, and while the Mets can’t seem to get out of their own way when deGrom starts, they are seemingly due.
deGrom will get another shot at the Phillies today in a revenge spot after they spoiled his brilliant outing 10 days ago.
He will go at it with Eflin, who has seen the home team win each of his last eight starts in this head-to-head matchup, which is more good news for New York.
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The Mets are more than due to put up some runs for their starter here today, as they haven’t topped three runs in any of his last four starts, all New York losses, and their lack of production at the plate was the direct cause of their two losses this season with their ace on the mound, as he was masterful in both outings. This guy is simply too good to continue to keep pitching in losses, and the Phillies’ anemic offense doesn’t figure to have a wakeup call today.
If the Mets are going to win, it will likely have to come via some help at the plate from Lindor. After all, his teammates have combined to hit just .238 (26-109) against Eflin in their careers with 28 strikeouts.
Lindor has never faced Eflin, but he has had a ton of success in day games throughout his career, hitting above his season average during the day in all but one year of his career. He’s a .296 career hitter in day games, compared with his .285 lifetime batting average.
Furthermore, he’s also been a far better hitter at home than on the road, batting .306 on home soil in his career versus just .265 on the road.
Lastly, since we expect the Mets to win, we can feel confident that Lindor will get a hit because he’s hitting .319 in his career in team wins against just .236 in losses. Likely to hit an advantageous second in the lineup today, with hits in five of his eight games thus far, and with a respectable .294 (5-17) batting average against active Phillies’ relievers, we have to believe Lindor will get plenty of chances to contribute a hit to this potential Mets win.
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Jean Segura to Record a Hit – No (-105)
Jean Segura starts off on the wrong foot here with a righty-righty matchup against DeGrom and typically hitting down in the lineup, splitting all of his time this season either sixth or seventh in the order.
Segura has hit a solid .295 (13-for-44) on the season thus far and is riding a six-game hitting streak, both helping to keep our outlay low on this wager, but there is more to the story that should give bettors hope of a hitless day.
For starters, he’s just 5-for-19 in day games (.263) this season. That aligns with Segura’s .275 career average in day games against a .290 career BA in night games. More importantly, is Segura’s complete ineptitude against deGrom throughout his career.
The Phillies’ second baseman is just 4-for-21 (.190) against the Mets ace with six strikeouts and only one extra-base hit, a double. This trend extends to a career-long struggle against power-pitchers in general, against whom Segura hits just .247, compared with his .285 overall batting average.
We expect him to only get three trips to the plate today with the way the Phillies lineup is struggling and with deGrom’s general overall dominance. Segura, therefore, looks like a solid bet to go hitless in this one.