On Wednesday night, the Philadelphia 76ers will play host to the Brooklyn Nets. The two teams share the lead atop the Eastern Conference with identical 37-17 records. Tonight’s winner will stand alone with a full game lead in the East and will also gain the 2-1 head-to-head regular season edge, as this will be the final meeting between the two squads before any potential postseason meeting.

Let’s get into our Sixers-Nets betting preview, including odds, boosts, and picks.

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Sixers vs. Nets Betting Prediction (April 14, 2021)

Just a few weeks prior to the start of this season, not many would have expected this this matchup to matter quite so much.

The Nets did not have James Harden, Blake Griffin, or LaMarcus Aldridge yet and were still unsure as to what they would get from Kevin Durant after a year and a half away from the game due to a torn Achilles.

The Sixers entered the season generally considered a second-tier Eastern Conference power following a coaching change and added pieces that were interesting, but seemingly not enough to turn the corner and become legitimate contenders. Yet, here we sit with these two teams 3.5 games ahead of the rest of the conference.

Click here to get 100-1 odds on the Sixers to make 1+ three-pointer at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Both teams enter on the front foot, with Philly having won five of their last seven and Brooklyn victorious in seven of nine.

However, it’s the Nets who come in with some seeming disadvantages tonight thanks to injuries and scheduling. Brooklyn is playing on unplanned no rest after their Monday game against the Wolves was moved to Tuesday afternoon following a response to the shooting death of Daunte Wright.

At the time this post was written, it has been established that Brooklyn will play without the services of Harden and Spencer Dinwiddie. They will likely also miss Kyrie Irving once again and could be without Aldridge, as well. The Sixers’ only major absence will likely be recent acquisition, George Hill, who is hoping to return for the NBA Playoffs from a thumb injury.

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Sixers vs. Nets Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Nets at DraftKings Sportsbook:

    • Spread: Sixers -7, Nets +7
    • Moneyline: Sixers -286, Nets +235
    • Total: 228

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

 

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

FiveThirtyEight gives the Sixers a 70% chance of winning with a -5.5 point line. Oddsmakers concur, with a slightly higher 72.6% implied win probability based on the moneyline.

Sixers to Lead at Halftime and Win the Game (-130, BetMGM)

The Sixers, with their health and rest edges coupled with their dominant home court advantage (20-5 SU, 16-9 ATS at home), are understandably favored in this one.

If they win the game, as oddsmakers expect, there’s a great chance they are also winning at halftime. This helps shrink your moneyline risk on the game that would cost you roughly -270 otherwise for the Sixers to win. Philly trailed at the half just twice in their last 10 games against teams currently in playoff position. One of those games was against these Nets where Philly led 59-56 at the half and went on to win the game going away by a 124-108 final.

This has been a running theme for Brooklyn when they lose. They have trailed at the half in eight straight and 10 of their last 11 losses.

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Sixers OVER 119.5 Points (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

If you like the Sixers to win and cover, logic should dictate they land above this 119.5 team total.

The game total is set around 229 points, depending on where you shop. This total with a spread set around -7 puts the final score around 118-111.

Beyond basic math, however, you should also consider that when the Nets lose, they bleed out a ton of points.

In their last 14 losses (they have 17 all season), they have allowed an average of 125.1 ppg. They gave up 120+ in 10 of those 14 games, in fact.

The Sixers have scored 119+ points on 16 different occasions this season, winning 15 of those games, with the only loss being the a game played against Utah without Joel Embiid. Philly also scored 118 points four times and 117 twice this season, winning all six of those games as well.

As a team known for  its elite defense, the Sixers have actually been within a basket of this team total in 22 of their 44 games this season, winning 21 of those 22 contests.

And they did it mostly against teams that do not play the same fast and loose style that Brooklyn demands. Lastly, the Sixers have averaged 121.4 ppg in their seven games this season with totals set at 230+.

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Nets UNDER 114.5 Points (-150, BetMGM)

It’s hard to imagine the Nets coming to Philadelphia and dropping a ton of points against a Sixers team which is 20-5 SU at home.

In those 25 games, the Sixers have allowed 115+ points just six times, which included two overtime games.

Interestingly, only one of those games was against a team currently in playoff position with the Sixers having suited up their full usual starting lineup.

In fact, Philly has allowed 115+ points in just 13 of their 44 games and, more recently, just three times in their last 26 games overall.

Brooklyn obviously plays a style of basketball that lends to points, but the Sixers have proven all season that when they get their claws into an opponent, the style doesn’t matter. It’s going to be tough sledding.

In 15 games against the Top 9 scoring teams in the league, all of which average 114.7 ppg or greater, the Sixers have allowed just 113.8 ppg in regulation, a number which includes those games where Philly was missing key starters/defenders.

A depleted Nets group on no rest that likely has its only legit star suited up on a minutes restriction will have a hard time reaching this team total tonight.

Keep in mind, Brooklyn has averaged just 111.8 points per game this season in their 10 previous games on no rest.

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Sixers vs. Nets Pick

When their stars are on the court this season, the Sixers get up for games against elite competition.

Philly has covered the spread in eight of its 10 home games this season against above .500 opponents. The Nets had become a bit of a rival even before they constructed their super team this season, with the Embiid/Jared Dudley war in the 2019 playoffs stirring things up.

Philly missed its chance to go into Brooklyn and beat the Nets in the teams’ first meeting this season, as positive COVID-19 tests diminished the Sixers’ lineup on gameday. They got their revenge a month later in early February, winning on this court by 16, while favored by a similar amount to tonight. Only one of the last 10 meetings between these two squads has been decided by less than six points, meaning whomever does win typically does so by a wider margin, with seven of those last 10 head-to-heads decided by double digits.

The Sixers are a dominant home team both straight up and against the spread. They have been a great cover team against the Eastern Conference, as well, losing against the spread just 11 times in their 31 games. They face a Nets team which has been just the opposite, at just 10-20 ATS against the Eastern Conference this season.

Notably, the Sixers have been fantastic on one day of rest. They are 25-10 SU and 22-13 ATS with a day to prepare and face a Brooklyn group which is just 4-6 ATS on no rest (5-12 ATS if you go back into last season). In fact, Philly is 5-0 straight up this season on one day of rest against a team on no rest!

The Nets enter off an easy victory over the Wolves yesterday, but Durant still played the second-most of anyone on the team with 27 minutes.

That’s troubling for the Nets, a team that is 0-5 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win and 2-5 ATS over their last seven games after a SU win. Making matters worse, they have covered just one of their last five games against above .500 teams and face a Sixers group that has lost just four of its last 14 games ATS as a favorite.

Pick: With Philly having covered eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including each of the last five at home, we believe the writing is on the wall for another big Sixers home win and cover tonight. Take the Sixers to win and cover.

 

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