Chalk looked like it may prevail in the Final Four until UCLA brought a return of the NCAA Tournament chaos by knocking off Michigan. That means this year’s Final Four is comprised of two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 seed, and a No. 11 seed, leaving open the door open for even more craziness this weekend.

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Interestingly, the remaining No. 1 seeds are on separate sides of the bracket, meaning that a heavyweight fight between Gonzaga vs. Baylor, a potential matchup that many college basketball observers have long figured would make the best title game tilt remains in play.

The current odds suggest that matchup is very much in play, but Houston and UCLA have other plans. Let’s sort through the possibility and offer up our best picks ahead of Monday night’s championship game.

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No. 1 seed Baylor (-5) vs. No. 2 seed Houston

Despite the current line, this could end up being the game we all look back at as the best game of the entire tournament.

Not only does this contest decide who goes to the title game, it’s one being played by two elite teams playing their best basketball right now. It also pits the nation’s second-best scoring defense (57.6 ppg) against its third-best scoring offense (85.3 ppg).

Neither team has reached this point in the NCAA Tournament since before many of those reading this were born, so how did these two teams reach this point?

Houston’s Odd Path to the Final Four

Houston established a reputation for its ability to blow teams out throughout much of this season, with 22 of their 29 wins this coming by double digits.

However, playing in the American Athletic Conference didn’t provide the Cougars with a ton of opportunities for stiff competition.

Wichita State handed Houston one of its three losses, while NIT Champion, Memphis, pushed the Cougars to the brink twice down the stretch.

Houston only played (and beat) one other team in the tournament field, Texas Tech, in the third game of the season.

incidentally, the only time Houston was an underdog all season before prior to this Baylor matchup was in that game. The Cougars don’t boast an incredible resume, despite being a pretty incredible team.

Once the Cougars won the AAC Tourney and cemented their No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, you figured they were going to start running into tougher foes. The competition level may have escalated a bit, but they somehow managed to reach the Final Four without playing a single-digit seed: No. 15 Cleveland State, No. 10 Rutgers, No. 11 Syracuse, and No. 12 Oregon State stood in their path.

While several of these teams had great runs, none were elite teams. Yet, Rutgers and Oregon St. pushed the Cougars throughout their matchups.

However, the “easy” road ends here, as Baylor isn’t like any of the teams Houston has seen.

Baylor Is a Matchup Nightmare

The Bears lead the nation in three-point field goal percentage (42.9%) and shoot it at nearly 50% overall from the field, with the type of offensive balance needed to push Houston’s top-ranked field goal percentage defense and fourth-ranked three-point field goal percentage defense.

We think Baylor has an edge that most others wouldn’t have against Houston. The Cougars rely upon their offensive rebounding to debilitate their opponents by creating second-chance points.

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They have regularly sent four guys to the offensive glass in this tournament and with great success. However, Baylor is the perfect opponent to offset that edge.

The Bears know who they are and who they are not. They are aware that they are just 279th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are willing to allow a few offensive rebounds by their opponents and if you’ve watched them play in this tournament, you know why.

When the Bears do grab the rebound, they are incredibly quick to run out and create an almost unstoppable break with multiple men, leading to easy layups and wide open threes. They will be able to exploit Houston’s board-crashing in this way, forcing Houston coach Kelvin Sampson to either hold guys back or play the game at Baylor’s breakneck pace.

Neither of those styles lend to what has produced Houston’s success this season and that adjustment ultimately be their undoing here.

Remember, Baylor is the team so many discussed early this season as the one squad who could push Gonzaga.

They rattled off 18 wins in a row to start the season and only slowed down because of a three-week COVID-19 shutdown. When they returned to action, the Bears struggled to cover spreads and lost their only two games of the season, but they have really hit their stride against Wisconsin, Villanova, and Arkansas.

The only true flaw they’ve shown this season has been a middling 244th-ranked foul shooting percentage (68.6%), but they topped 70% in each of their last three games of this tournament, hitting 38-50 (76%) in that span.

Finally, the trends overwhelmingly favor Baylor in this spot.

Baylor was 11-3 ATS this season as favorites of 3-12 points and have covered nine of their last 12 games as favorites on neutral courts.

Meanwhile, they were an astounding 12-5 ATS away from home. They were 9-4 ATS on 3+ days of rest and were 7-2 ATS when their long rest coincided with their opponents’ long rest. Finally, Baylor is 35-16 ATS in games against teams with better than .600 win percentages.

Houston vs. Baylor Betting Pick

Bettors can expect them to rise to the occasion again here against a Houston team that has struggled at times offensively in this tournament.

Our Pick: Baylor -5

No. 1 seed Gonzaga (-14.5) vs. No. 11 seed UCLA

Make no mistake about it. It should be fully expected that Gonzaga continues to roll, winning this game and most likely covering the spread in the process.

The Bulldogs are the best team in college basketball this season and perhaps over the last several seasons.

However, this matchup in this spot in the tournament offers a unique opportunity to play on a total that has tremendous value.

No. 11 seed UCLA became just the second First Four team to advance to the Final Four, along with the memorable 2011 VCU squad.

The Bruins had to win an extra game, five in all, to get here, including two overtime games. How much could this team possibly have left, particularly against the nation’s top offense in terms of scoring (92.9 ppg) and field goal percentage (55.3%).

If you are Mick Cronin, what is your approach here? How do you even enter this game with your 143rd-ranked scoring offense and convince your guys you have a plan that can work?

You surely can’t reinvent yourself at this point. You have to stick with what got you on this hot run, which has included four of their four NCAA Tournament wins as underdogs.

How Slow Can You Go?

What has got them here has been a suffocating defense and as deliberate of an offense as you will see in the college game today.

The Bruins have choked the life out of games against otherwise potent offenses like Michigan, Alabama, and BYU by walking the ball up the court and draining the shot clock under 10 seconds in their half-court offense before finding a high-percentage shot. They’ve turned this slow-pacing into an art form, and it is something they have done all season long.

There is no point in trying to run with the Gonzaga. UCLA can only hope to minimize possessions and get lucky to have the Bulldogs miss a high percentage of shots.

UCLA didn’t score Gonzaga’s average of 93 points per game even a single time in regulation this season. This is a team that can’t score with the Zags. Instead, the Bruins will have to hope that doing an extreme version of what they have done in the last four rounds of this tournament will be enough.

The Bruins allowed 49, 65, 47, and 62 points (in regulation) in those four games, good for a 55.8 ppg against average. They only allowed 80+ points in regulation twice this season and failed to win or cover either of those games. The mission must be to keep Gonzaga under 80.

Obviously, that’s much easier said than done against this free-flowing offense that never seems to take a bad shot. However, there is some hope here. Gonzaga played seven games this season with totals between 140 and 154 and six of those games stayed under the posted totals.

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The only one that went over the total landed at just 151 total points scored. Gonzaga averaged 84.7 ppg in those games, well below their season average, while allowing just 58.1 ppg. Add those averages together and you can expect roughly 143 points here, putting us right in the ballpark of a number that cashes the under.

Bettors shouldn’t expect UCLA to concede 84, even to Gonzaga, as they haven’t done so all season in regulation and will be slowing the pace down to a crawl for as long as possible here. It is also unlikely that Gonzaga will be here to bury the Bruins and make a 40-minute statement.

At this point in an undefeated season, just a win away from a title game which tips off less than 45 hours from the start of this one, what is to be gained by running UCLA out of the building?

Instead, expect the Bulldogs to ensure a safe victory and coast to the finish, worrying more about team health and fresh legs for Monday than another 18+ point victory, their average margin of victory this season.

Once this one is in hand, it should be all eyes on Monday night.

From a trends perspective, Gonzaga played 12 of their 19 night games under the total. It also played 10 of its 17 games under the total on three or more days of rest, scoring and allowing less than their season averages in that role.

And for a team with the offensive reputation the Bulldogs have established, they have actually only played seven of their last 22 NCAA Tournament games over the posted total.

UCLA vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick

UCLA’s efforts to shorten this one early on combined with Gonzaga likely taking its foot off the gas late ahead of Monday night should help produce another Bruins game that stays under the total, which, ironically, would be their seventh under in their last eight Saturday games this season.

Our Pick: Under 146 Total Points

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