Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 4, 2021)
The Phillies send Aaron Nola to the mound tonight looking to guarantee themselves at least a split of a four-game series with the Brewers and win back-to-back games for the first time since early last month. To do it, they will likely need one of Nola’s best efforts, as they come into this game without some of their top bullpen arms. The Brewers will counter with lefty Eric Lauer, who spun five scoreless innings against the Dodgers last week.
Let’s take a look at the Brewers vs. Phillies odds for the second game of a four-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.
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Brewers vs. Phillies Odds (May 4, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Brewers vs. Phillies odds for this May 4, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-148) | +114 | U 9 (-110) |
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Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction
Following an awful loss on Sunday night, the Phillies showed some heart last night in a 4-3 win over Milwaukee — even if it was anything but easy. Now, they get a chance to end their streak of 10 straight losses after a win with their ace on the mound.
Nola at home is always a tempting play, but there is a lot of history behind the Phils’ inability to win back-to-back games. After an emotional game last night, we are going to avoid laying the big number with the Phils here, but instead will look to ride Nola’s talents to cash an under play.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WhMb2Eif-U
It’s Good to Be Home
In his three home starts this season, Nola has allowed just three runs over 19 2/3 innings pitched, good for a 1.37 ERA. He has allowed just 14 hits and one home run in those outings, while striking out 21 batters.
His success this season at Citizens Bank Park is echoed across his career, as he boasts 2.92 ERA and 1.086 WHIP against a 4.07 ERA and 1.234 WHIP lifetime on the road.
Nola has also had good success against the Brewers in his career, as the Phils have won five of his six career starts against Milwaukee behind his 2.97 ERA. In four of those six outings, Nola lasted six innings or more while allowing two runs or less.
Six of Nola’s last eight starts have produced seven or fewer total runs. In fact, four of his last 10 starts have seen one of the teams held scoreless. Outside of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, current Brewers are just 5-for-29 (.172), which doesn’t bode well for a team that already hits right-handed pitching very poorly at just a .205 average on the season.
A Model of Consistency
Nola’s opposition tonight, Lauer, was brilliant in his lone start this season, a 2-1 victory over the reigning champs last week.
The lefty held the Dodgers scoreless through five innings, allowing just four hits.
His success extends back to 2019 when he was last starting games for the Padres. He has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his last 10 starts, sporting a 4.04 ERA across that span. In fact, he has 20 strikeouts and no home runs allowed across 15.2 innings pitched in his last three starts.
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Lauer dominated the Phillies in his lone start against them back in June of 2019, allowing one run on two hits across six innings in an 8-2 victory. The lefty is unlikely to go as deep tonight, but he has the best parts of the bullpen available to help out after the Brewers trailed throughout last night.
Betting Trends to Know
Milwaukee has played a shocking 10 of 13 road games under the total, averaging just 7.77 combined total runs per game on the road. The Brewers also tighten things up after a loss, allowing just 2.91 runs per game after a defeat, playing six of those nine games under the posted number.
That pairs well with the fact that the Phils struggle so much after wins, scoring just 2.92 runs per game in 13 prior tries in this role. It’s hard to imagine things getting much better tonight, knowing that Philly has tallied just ten total runs in their last four home games against the Brewers (2.50 runs per game).
Milwaukee has struggled in the second game of series this season, going just 2-7 to this point.
This is part of a larger trend for Milwaukee that has seen the Brewers play just three of their last 17 second games of series over the posted total. The Crew also has just six overs in their last 28 road games, including only four in their last 17 as a road dog. The Brewers have also played just 14 of their last 51 road games over against right-handed starters.
The Phillies have played five of their last six under against the NL Central this season and have cashed seven under plays in their last nine games against above .500 teams.
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Brewers vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Look for tonight’s game to extend a 5-1 under run for the Phils in games with totals set between 7 and 8.5, a role which has seen Milwaukee also lean strongly to the under.
Our Pick: UNDER 7.5 runs
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