Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 6, 2021)
The Phillies won their third consecutive game last night over the Brewers after jumping out to an early 5-0 lead. It appeared early on they would finally break a streak of six straight one-run games, but that was before Chase Anderson got knocked out in the fifth and Brewers pitching retired 24 of the next 26 Phillies batters that came to the plate. Instead of a laugher, the Phillies needed the like of Matt Moore and Enyel De Los Santos to navigate late innings holds before Jose Alvarado closed the door in the ninth to give the Phillies a 5-4 win. Today, they will go for the sweep when they send Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.49 ERA) to the hill against Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 1.80 ERA).
Let’s take a look at the Brewers vs. Phillies odds for the final game of a four-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.
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Brewers vs. Phillies Odds (May 6, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Brewers vs. Phillies odds for this May 6, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-148) | +114 | U 9 (-110) |
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Brewers vs. Phillies Betting Prediction
You hate to do it. The Phillies rallied together to win three straight games to start this series after their epic collapse in the final game against the Mets on Sunday night. As a fan, you want to believe they’ve figured it out, that they’re hot now, that they’re going to go on a run. But, I implore Philadelphia fans to put their hearts aside for a second and trust what their eyes are seeing.
The eye test shows a team that failed to get a baserunner after the fourth inning two nights ago and then get one-hit after a monster first inning last night. Those same eyes should also spot a poor and spent bullpen that used five arms to get through 4 2/3 innings last night.
With seven one-run games in a row, the most in MLB on the season by a long shot, they are set up to fail in a day game following a night game in the finale of a series they have already clinched. And don’t forget, they have a big road series against a division rival on deck.
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The Phils send RHP Zack Wheeler to the mound and his reputation alone keeps our value on Milwaukee high here. Wheeler has been generally good, but his team’s end results in his starts have not. Despite a respectable 3.49 ERA and stellar 1.11 WHIP for the righty, the Phillies are just 2-4 in his starts.
Wheeler Cooling at Home
Wheeler’s performances here at Citizens Bank Park have lacked since an electric debut in early April. He has allowed eight runs in just 12 2/3 innings pitched in his last two home starts (5.90 ERA). Any fraction of that today should be enough for the Brewers against a Phillies team that has provided him with just 3.17 runs per start this season, an average inflated by a seven-run effort in one outing.
Current Brewers have not faced the right-hander a ton, but have gone 7-for-24 (.292) in those limited opportunities.
The Brewers have the perfect guy on the mound today to stop their four-game losing streak and salvage something from this series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6xwUT1db94
The Right Guy at the Right Time
Brandon Woodruff has found the form that made him a legitimate Cy Young candidate in the first half of the 2019 season. The right-hander is fifth in the league with a 1.80 ERA and sixth with a 0.80 WHIP. The Brewers have won five of his six starts this season with the lone loss a 3-2 defeat to the Cubs where he allowed just one run and three hits over six innings.
Since his Opening Day start, the Brewers’ ace has allowed just four runs and 13 hits in 31 innings (1.16 ERA), while striking out 35 batters. He lasted at least six innings in each of those five starts and has the best parts of his bullpen ready and waiting, not having gotten much action as lately during their mini slide.
Woodruff’s season stats alone are compelling, but they pale in comparison to his career numbers against current Phillies. Are you ready for this?
Present active Phillies have gone a mind-numbing 4-for-49 (.082) against the righty with 20 strikeouts. Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto are a combined 0-for-18 with eight strikeouts.
If you’re Joe Girardi, do you bring Harper back for this matchup (no) and do you sit Realmuto in a day game after a night game (probably)? With Matt Joyce and Roman Quinn already on the shelf, the lefty options are bleak against a guy with a 0.47 ERA on the road this season.
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Some Trends to Know
Wheeler’s teams have lost his last three starts against Milwaukee while Woodruff’s Brewers have won his last two against the Phils, coincidentally both May starts, like today. Those wins saw him last 14 innings, giving up just one run and two hits. In fact, he has only allowed a single hit in each of his three career starts against Philadelphia.
The Phils lost their only Game 4 of a series this season and face a Brewers team that is 11-4 in its last 15 Games 4s.
Milwaukee had won eight straight games after a loss coming into this series and had won nine of their last 11 on the road before arriving in Philadelphia. The Brewers are 16-7 in their last 23 games against opponents who had just scored five or more runs previously and face a Phillies team which is just 3-7 after scoring five or more in its previous game.
We know Philly’s struggles after wins this season, now just 2-10 in their last 12 tries, but did you realize that they are also just 3-8 in their last 11 games as an underdog?
Brewers vs. Phillies Pick
With a series in Atlanta looming and this series already clinched, this feels like a throw-away game for Philadelphia against what should be a desperate Milwaukee team.
Our Pick: Milwaukee -125 (DraftKings)
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