On Saturday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road taking on the Washington Capitals at the Capital One Arena. This represents the eighth and final meeting between the teams this season.
Let’s get into our Flyers vs. Capitals betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this May 8, 2021 matchup.
Flyers vs. Capitals Betting Pick (May 8, 2021)
Saturday night’s matchup between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Washington Capitals marks the second game of a back-to-back, as well as the final meeting between these squads this season.
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After putting together a truly horrendous effort in Brian Elliott’s 500th career game on Tuesday against the Penguins in a 7-3 loss, the Flyers pulled themselves together in his 501st.
In fact, Elliott recorded the fourth assist of his Flyers career in Friday’s win over the Capitals. If sophomore slumps are a thing, don’t tell Joel Farabee, who netted his 18th goal of the season just 1:44 into the game. Washington’s Daniel Sprong sprung into action with 3:41 remaining in the first period, sending the teams into intermission tied at a goal apiece.
The youth movement continued for the Flyers as 23-year-old forward Wade Allison found the back of the net for the second time in three games with just under five minutes gone in the second. Ten minutes later, he did it again, scoring his fourth goal this season. TJ Oshie, coming off a hat trick performance against the Rangers, cut the deficit to one with 1:09 left in the second period.
However, reigning Selke Trophy winner Sean Couturier sealed the deal with an empty net goal with just 31 seconds remaining in regulation.
While the Flyers’ win was nothing more than a morale boost for a team heading into an early offseason, it was a crushing blow to the Washington Capitals, who entered Friday night’s contest with two games in hand on the first place Pittsburgh Penguins.
As it stands entering play on Saturday, Washington is two points behind Pittsburgh with a game in hand, while the Boston Bruins are breathing down Washington’s neck, just two points behind in third place. Unfortunately for Washington and Pittsburgh, the Bruins have three games remaining in their season and could conceivably claim the top seed in the East Division.
Given that the Bruins and Capitals will play one another in the season finale, it’s critical for Washington to win on Saturday night.
Flyers vs. Capitals Odds
Here’s the line for the Flyers and Capitals at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:
- Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-159), Capitals -1.5 (+133)
- Moneyline: Flyers +155, Capitals -180
- Over/Under: O 6.5 +102, U 6.5 -125
Bets We Like With a Capitals Win
Money Puck gives the Capitals a 59.3% chance of winning this game, which is a 2.3% dip from prior to Friday night’s contest. Meanwhile, Washington’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is a bit higher at 62%.
Capitals to Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+138, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Washington Capitals are in a tricky situation entering Saturday night’s contest. Their positioning in the East Division playoff picture is rather tenuous. They have one game remaining after Saturday, a contest with the Boston Bruins that could dramatically affect the final standings.
A loss could put the Caps in jeopardy of falling to the third seed. A win could keep their hopes of attaining the top seed alive.
The Flyers will attempt to exorcise the demons of winning back-to-back games, which they haven’t done since March 29. In fact, Philadelphia is 0-6-0 in games following wins since March 29. As such, Washington is in about as strong of a position to win as can be.
As for taking the Over 5.5 Goals market, keep in mind that these teams have displayed a propensity for scoring goals against one another, having totaled over 5.5 goals in six of their seven meetings this season:
- 2/7/21: PHI @ WSH (7-4)
- 3/11/21: WSH @ PHI (5-3)
- 3/13/21: WSH @ PHI (5-4)
- 4/13/21: PHI @ WSH (6-1)
- 4/17/21: WSH @ PHI (6-3)
- 5/7/21: PHI @ WSH (4-2)
As for recent scoring trends, the Over 5.5 Goals market has hit in each of the Capitals’ last three games, as well as in 12 of their last 15 games. The market has also hit in the Flyers’ last three games and in six of their last seven games overall.
Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
TJ Oshie to Score a Goal (+155, BetMGM)
Washington forward TJ Oshie has had a solid season, recording 43 points (22G, 21A) in 52 games. In a week in which his teammate Tom Wilson’s actions sparked controversy and many around the hockey world questioning punishments rendered by the league’s Department of Player Safety, a more important story emerged. Oshie lost his father earlier this week, only to take to the ice and net an inspirational hat trick against the New York Rangers.
He followed that up on Friday night, when he scored a goal against the Flyers. That goal brought his total up to five goals in his last four games.
Oshie’s goal against the Flyers on Friday night marked his first against the Orange & Black in six games this season. While that might appear to be reason to pause before wagering on this market, we’re of the belief that the mantra of goalscorers scoring in droves will carry through, especially given how important of an escape hockey can be to him in this difficult time.
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Joel Farabee to Record Over 0.5 Points (+116, FanDuel Sportsbook)
One of the biggest questions surrounding the Flyers at the start of the season was whether or not GM Chuck Fletcher’s decision to gamble on his team’s youth would pay off. Fast-forward to May, and it’s clear the dice came up snake eyes. A number of Philadelphia’s young players plateaued at best, if not regressed significantly.
Perhaps the lone outlier of that group is sophomore wing Joel Farabee. Farabee’s 36 points are the fifth-highest number for Philadelphia behind Jakub Voracek (43), James van Riemsdyk (41), Claude Giroux (41), and Sean Couturier (39). The most impressive thing, however, is that the 21-year-old Farabee’s 18 goals are the most on the team.
For a bit of perspective, in 52 games as a rookie, Farabee found the net just eight times and totaled 21 points.
Farabee found the back of the net on Friday night against the Caps and has recorded six points (2G, 4A) in seven games against Washington this season. He’s also posted five points in his last four games overall. Ride the hot hand and get in on Farabee to record at least one point.
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Flyers vs. Capitals Prediction
Pick: The Flyers have started off their last two back-to-back sets against contending teams with victories. However, Philadelphia has failed to win back-to-back contests in each of their last six attempts since March 29. The importance of this contest will not be lost on the Caps, who should win handily. Take the Capitals to Win and Over 5.5 Goals.