The Phillies head down to Miami for a four-game set looking to finally figure out a way to take care of a Marlins team that has given them fits over the last number of years. Since the start of the 2019 season, the Phillies are just 13-19 against the Marlins, including a 4-9 mark under Joe Girardi. Tonight, they’ll send Zach Eflin to the mound against Miami’s Trevor Rogers, who dazzled the Phillies over 7 2/3 innings week, allowing just one run.

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Marlins betting odds and make some betting picks for the first game of a four-game series.

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Phillies vs. Marlins Odds (May 24, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Marlins odds for this May 24, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:


Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Yankees -1.5 (+125) -132 O 9 (-110)
Phillies +1.5 (-148) +114 U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Marlins Pick

The Phillies managed to avoid a home sweep against the Red Sox yesterday afternoon and now head to Miami to face the Marlins in the first game of a four-game series. The two teams just met at Citizens Bank Park for three less than a week ago with Miami taking two of three. One of the wins came with the same pitching matchup that we will see tonight as Eflin will searching for revenge against Rogers, who has been scintillating this spring.

Little Support

After scoring three runs or less in four of their last five and facing a Marlins team which has allowed one run or less in four of its last five, Eflin will know he’s unlikely to get a ton of support and will have to win this one with his arm. The Phillies have averaged just 3.8 runs per game in eight road starts against lefties this season and have given Eflin just a single run of support in each of his last two starts against Miami.

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Thankfully, Eflin has proven he will give the team innings, lasting at least six innings in all nine starts this season, while allowing two or less runs in six of those outings. While having struggled on the road this season and throughout his career, Eflin has been solid against the Marlins across his last 10 starts. In those outings, he boasts a 3.71 ERA with eight quality starts.

Mr. Rogers Neighborhood

We mentioned Rogers’ stellar start to the season and it’s true. He boasts a 6-2 record and a 1.74 ERA. He and Eflin both have WHIPs at 1.15 or better, with Rogers toting a 1.05 thus far.

Six of his nine starts have stayed under the total with just one of outing topping eight total runs. In fact, each of his last six outings and eight of the nine this season have seen one of the teams score one run or less. The left-hander has yet to allow a home run here at loanDepot Park, where his ERA dips slightly to 1.69.

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Both teams enter off a win with the Phillies scoring just 3.5 runs per game after victories this season, playing each of the last four under in that role. Miami is allowing just 3.57 runs in that spot and they also give up just 3.25 here at home, both numbers below their season average.

Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Trends

Under Trends of Note for the Phillies:

  • Five of last six under as a dog
  • Six of last seven under on the road
  • Five of last six under after scoring five or more runs prior
  • Six of last seven under in division games
  • Seven of last eight under when total is set between 7-8.5
  • Against LHP, five of last seven overall and four of last five on the road under

Under Trends of Note for the Marlins:

  • Eight of last ten under against RHP
  • Four straight under as a favorite
  • Four of last five under when total is set between 7-8.5
  • Four of last five under in division games
  • Four of last five against opponent having score five or more runs prior

Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Prediction

There are simply too many signs right now that point to a low-scoring game tonight. It’s a low total, but it’s a low total for a reason.

Our Pick: Phi/Mia Under 7 (PointsBet -115)

 

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