Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 11, 2021)

phillies nationals odds pick prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies will open up a three-game set with the Nationals in Washington on Tuesday night looking to win their first road series in 10 tries dating back to last September. It appeared their series winless streak would come to an end on Saturday night, but Pablo Sandoval and the Braves had other plans. The Phillies then fell flat in Sunday night’s rubber match. Tonight, they will send Chase Anderson (1-3, 5.54 ERA) to the mound against Erick Fedde (2-3, 5.27 ERA), providing what could be an advantageous pitching matchup for both lineups.

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Nationals odds for the opening game of a three-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

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Phillies vs. Nationals Odds (May 11, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Nationals odds for this May 11, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Yankees-1.5 (+125)-132O 9 (-110)
Phillies+1.5 (-148)+114U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Nationals Betting Prediction

A pair of blown three-run leads by the Phillies in Atlanta on Saturday night seems to have unhinged a team that was on a roll. They followed that loss with another on national television Sunday night, as Aaron Nola lasted just four innings after allowing four runs in the first.

We are back to questioning Philadelphia’s staff, with a bullpen that is going to be a headache all season long and a starting rotation that will continually feel the pressure of having to pitch deep most nights in order to win. We know that is unlikely tonight, as the best arms of the Phils’ pen are well-rested, not having been needed since Saturday. Joe Girardi will likely use his bullpen early and often tonight, especially with Anderson, who has struggled to get deep into games this season, on the mound.

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Concerning Numbers for Anderson

Dating back to last season, Anderson has not topped five innings of work or 92 pitches in any of his last 10 starts, six of which came this season with Philadelphia. Six of his last eight starts have gone over the posted total, including four of six with the Phillies.

The righty has made three starts against Washington in his career and it certainly has not gone well. In those three games, Anderson lasted just 9 1/3 total innings, allowing a rancid 19 hits, six walks, and 18 earned runs, good for an unenviable 16.39 ERA.

Anderson has helped the Phillies to two underdog wins in his last two starts, but those both came at home. In his two road starts, he allowed eight runs in 7 2/3 innings pitched, good for a 9.39 ERA. Unsurprisingly, both of those games went over the total.

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Concerning Numbers for Fedde

Washington will counter with Fedde, who has a different problem from Anderson this season in that he has struggled  at home. His 5.27 season ERA jumps to 8.49 at Nationals Park where opponents are hitting .300, compared to just .225 overall this season.

Just one of his last five starts against the Phillies has stayed under, with those five games producing an average of 15.6 total runs per game. Fedde has lost three straight against the Phils, allowing five home runs and 13 total runs in 18 innings (6.50 ERA). All three of those games saw the Phillies end up scoring eight runs or more.

Current Phillies have gone just 24-for-104 (.231) against Fedde, but they do have six home runs to their credit. Bryce Harper has had success against the right-hander, going 4-for-11 (.364) with two home runs. The last time these two teams met was last September and Fedde got the start, a game that sailed over as the Phillies won by a 12-3 final.

Betting Trends to Know

  • Philly has also played nine of their last 11 away games over when facing sub .500 teams. Interestingly, the Phils have played eight of their last 10 over as road dogs and 12 of their last 17 overall as dogs over as well.
  • Finally, Washington, which scored just two runs in a 3-2 loss to the Yankees on Sunday, has played just one game under in their last five games after scoring two runs or less.
  • Philadelphia has played seven of its last 10 over against opponents that have scored two runs or less their last time out.

Phillies vs. Nationals Pick

Our Pick: Phi/Was Over 8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -120)

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