Rays vs. Phillies Betting Pick, Odds, Prediction (August 24, 2021)

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Tampa Bay Rays for a quick two-game set that starts tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams enter tonight’s game following an off day. The Phils salvaged a brutal road trip with a series win in San Diego while the Rays come to town following a highly successful 6-1 homestand.

Let’s check out tonight’s matchup with our Rays vs. Phillies pick.

Rays vs. Phillies Pick (August 24, 2021)

The Phillies will send left-hander Ranger Suarez to the mound. He will be opposed by right-hander Drew Rasmussen for the Rays. Both of tonight’s starters spent most of this season in the bullpen, with each slated to make his fifth start in this one. While Rasmussen has topped out at four innings and 56 pitches in his four starts, Suarez has seen an increased workload in each appearance.

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The lefty threw just 33 pitches in his first start this season, but reached 86 across 4 2/3 innings during his most recent outing, a 4-2 loss at Arizona.

The motivation would seem to sit squarely with Philadelphia tonight. After all, the Phillies are desperately trying to keep pace with the Atlanta Braves, who hold a 4.5 game lead in the National League East. Meanwhile, Tampa holds a comfortable four-game lead in both the American League East and for the best record in the American League.

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Rays vs. Phillies Odds

Let’s take a quick look at the current Rays vs. Phillies betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Despite that seemingly strong motivational edge, you have to look at the reality of these clubs’ identities right now. The Phillies had won just three of their previous 11 contests before a 7-4 victory Sunday in San Diego during Rhys Hoskins’ return to the lineup. Philadelphia had averaged just 2.86 runs per game in the 14 games prior while Hoskins was sidelined. One man is unlikely to be able to sustain a full-on switch in the team’s offensive production.

At the same time, Tampa’s offense has been clicking right along, no matter who is in or out of the lineup. The Rays have scored five or more runs in seven straight games, averaging eight runs per game during that span. They have also scored at least six runs in all four of Rasmussen’s starts this season, averaging eight runs per game to support him.

Of note, Tampa, which blanked the White Sox 9-0 on Sunday, has won five straight games after shutting out its previous opponent. The Rays have outscored their opponents by a 33-12 margin in those five games, good for an average margin of victory of nearly four runs per game. Tampa Bay is also 11-7 after an off day this season, winning 10 of its last 14. One of those wins came against this Phillies team when the Rays defeated Zack Wheeler back in May.

For the Phillies to win these days, it seems to have to be by edging their opponent out in a close game. However, that will be extremely difficult to do against a team who wrote the book on winning those types of games over the past few seasons. Bullpen games and using “openers” to start games is a Tampa way of life and they have the bullpen and team defense to work it to perfection.

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The Rays’ bullpen leads the league in innings pitched (533.2), wins (46), ERA (3.05), and WAR (6.8), whereas Philly’s pen has one of the ten worst ERAs in the league (4.58). In a game figuring to feature ample amounts of both bullpens, Tampa has to get the nod for having a huge edge tonight.

The Rays are the second best run scoring team in the league this season, while also allowing the eighth least runs per game. The Phillies are not in the top half of the league in either runs scored or runs allowed. While Philadelphia’s home record (36-25) is impressive, it’s also the same as Tampa’s road record, which happens to be the best in the American League. Further, no team in baseball has more wins against left-handed starters than the Rays (28).

Rays vs. Phillies Betting Prediction

The streaky Rays have won 10 of their last 14 road games and 43 of their last 57 games following a victory this season. They are 20-6 in their last 26 games when favored in interleague play. Look for them to move to 15-5 in their last 20 games against the National League East and 19-7 in their last 26 against above .500 opponents with a quintessential Tampa style victory tonight.

Our Pick: Rays -112 (Caesars Sportsbook)