49ers vs. Eagles Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction (September 19, 2021)

49ers eagles odds pick
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Nick Sirianni era began with unmitigated success last Sunday when the Eagles marched into Atlanta and came out with a convincing 32-6 victory. Now, the Eagles will welcome the San Francisco 49ers to a sold out Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday afternoon with both teams looking to move to 2-0. The Niners outlasted the Lions, 41-33, in Detroit last weekend, despite being outscored 23-3 in the game’s final 22 minutes.

Let’s break down this matchup by taking a look at the odds and betting trends before making a 49ers vs. Eagles betting pick and prediction.

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Eagles vs. 49ers Betting Pick

The 49ers’ Week 1 win was costly. They lost both cornerback Jason Verrett and running back Raheem Mostert for the season with injuries. Verrett’s absence leaves the Niners thin on outside coverage options, prompting a move to sign veteran CB Dre Kirkpatrick earlier in the week. Kirkpatrick joins Dontae Johnson, rookie Ambry Thomas, and Josh Norman as the likely options to pair with rookie Emmanuel Moseley at the starting corner positions.

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This is a highly exploitable group for rookie wide receiver DeVonta Smith, the Eagles’ first-round pick. Smith lived up to the hype in his regular season debut, catching six passes for 71 yards, including a touchdown on his first NFL reception at the same spot on the Mercedes-Benz Stadium field where he hauled in the game-winning score against Georgia in the 2018 National Championship Game.

Smith should find plenty of space against a now-patchwork 49ers secondary that allowed 314 yards through the air to the Lions last week, and could make a couple big plays over the top for the Eagles here.

Conversely, the Niners should find similar offensive success. Despite allowing just six points to Atlanta, Philadelphia’s run defense looked susceptible to quality run games.

San Francisco certainly fits that bill, as it has used a dynamic rushing attack to set up their downfield passing game for several seasons now under head coach Kyle Shanahan.

The Eagles could also find themselves in trouble if they put extra men in the box to slow the run, as they will also be responsible for trying to slow elite tight end George Kittle.

 

If the Eagles hope to remain undefeated while facing a 49ers offense that piled up 41 points and 442 total yards on the road in Week 1, it will need to replicate what was a highly effective offensive game plan in its opener.

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Sirianni’s offensive play-calling against Atlanta played to second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts’ skill set magnificently and had the Eagles’ offense looking like the dynamic 2019 Oklahoma attack led by Hurts.

Eagles vs. 49ers Odds

Despite the losses of Verrett and Mostert, San Francisco opened as four-point favorites on the road for this Week 2 matchup.

The line has dropped to as low as -3 at many legal online sportsbooks since, despite the 49ers commanding upwards of 65 percent of both the placed wagers and money thus far. The total has spiked to as high as 50.5 points, with the over currently seeing 65 percent of the bets but just 19 percent of the money (both splits are as of Friday morning).

Eagles vs. 49ers Prediction

We see quality value in the over as both offenses look to have the advantage against its defensive opposition. Both units are coming off highly successful Week 1 efforts.

Philly averaged 5.6 yards per rush last week, third best in the NFL, while allowing 4.8 yards per rush, tied with San Francisco.  The 49ers were tied for the 10th best rushing average in the league at 4.7 yards per rush in Week 1.

In terms of trends, the Eagles have played 12 of their last 14 games over the total in the first quarter of seasons following an under result against a non-division opponent.

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The Niners, who tallied the most points in the league last week (41), did so on the joint-sixth least total plays (55). That led to the league’s second-best yards per play average in the first week (8.0), a good pairing with Philly’s sixth-best average (6.5 yards per play) for any over bettor. Plus, the 49ers also allowed the Lions to run the most plays in football in Week 1 (84), four more than second-best Las Vegas, which had the benefit of an overtime period to add to its total.

Also of note, San Francisco has played over in four straight after a SU victory and have not played under in any of its last six as road favorites. In fact, four of the team’s last five as favorites anywhere have gone over, too. The Niners have played seven of their last 10 September games over the posted number. After all, they have played just five of their last 17 under the total after gaining more than 350 total yards in their previous outing.

By the way, Week 2 has been a sneaky hot spot for those who like to wager on the over. Last season, the over went 11-5 in Week 2, averaging 53.3 total points per game. Since 2001, the over has gone 30-9-1 for all Week 2 non-division home underdogs of greater than a point when the game has a posted total of 41 or more.

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ATS Pick

Knowing that the head-to-head history here has seen at least one of the teams score 24 or more points in each of the last eight meetings, games that produced an average of 50.1 total points per, gives us great confidence that we are in for high-scoring between these two this weekend.

The 49ers and Eagles should sail over this number, despite the fact that it is the highest posted total in any of the last nine head-to-head meetings between Philadelphia and San Francisco.

Our Pick: SF/Phi Over 50 (Caesars Sportsbook -110)

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