Having a great quarterback certainly beats not having one, but it’s no guarantee of deep playoff runs on an annual basis. We’re not talking about Tom Brady here — he’s a category of one. We’re talking about guys like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson and, yes, Patrick Mahomes. 

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In a salary cap league, keeping key contributors from year to year is nigh on impossible. In March, the Chiefs released both of their starting offensive tackles. Eric Fisher was the first overall selection in the 2013 draft, but after he tore an Achilles tendon in the Chiefs’ win in the AFC Championship Game in January, Fisher’s contract was deemed too steep to carry for a player who probably wouldn’t play at the same level this season. The Chiefs also released Mitchell Schwartz; together, the two transactions saved the Chiefs approximately $20 million in cap space. At what cost, though? Mahomes cannot be thrilled with the flux in front of him.

And then there’s the hunger question. Maintaining a killer approach to the game season after season is extremely difficult, especially after a team has had enormous success. All of this taken together explains to some degree what seems to be happening with the Kansas City Chiefs right now. Their two losses featured uncharacteristic failures to close. They led the Baltimore Ravens by 11 entering the fourth quarter in Week 1, gave up 12 points, scored none, and lost. They led the Los Angeles Chargers by three with 6:43 left on Sunday, gave up nine unanswered points and lost again.

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The Chiefs are 1-2, and from a distance, anyway, they look a little disinterested. Bored, even. It’s a little hard to blame them. They won the Super Bowl two seasons ago and lost in the Super Bowl in February. That’s an awful lot of football, and a lot of high stakes football at that. After staring down Brady in a game that meant the difference between defending their title and ceding it, the Chiefs could be excused for failing to bring that same intensity to a September home game against the Chargers.


As noted above, just having an exceptional quarterback does not automatically lead to having a great season. Take Rodgers, for example. Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL for more than a decade…but he has exactly one ring and he’s 1-4 in the NFC Championship Game. The quarterback can do a lot of it. He can’t do all of it himself.

It’s the apparent ennui of the Chiefs that underlies this over pick. The over/under is at 54, which is a pretty big number. But the Chiefs offense is apt to do more or less whatever it likes against an Eagles defensive unit that just gave up six touchdowns to the Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs have scored 33, 35 and then 24 points in their first three games, all of which came against better teams than the Eagles. You should be able to pencil the Chiefs in for at least 30 points here.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Total Pick at Unibet

As it was last week, the question for the total is whether the Eagles will score enough points to hold up their end. This is where the current tendency of the Chiefs to leave their opponents in games will factor heavily. The Chiefs are giving up over 30 points a game so far this season. They seem to be content to trade scores and trust that in the end, they’ll have more points than you do. That’s probably what will happen here — and it’s why the over is the play.

THE PICK: Chiefs 34, Eagles 24

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