Padres Proving they're Phillies' Doppelganger, Setting up a Long Series for the Pennant
There was one noticeable difference about the San Diego Padres Wednesday as compared to the Atlanta Braves last week – they didn’t look intimidated by the Phillies, nor were they ever questioning their lot in the series, even when down four runs.
In fact, the San Diego Padres looked a lot like the Phillies have looked in the past two weeks.
Cocksure. Confident. Not worried about any particular deficit.
It’s why they were able to overcome a 4-0 deficit against Aaron Nola, who had been pitching brilliantly for more than a month, to defeat the Phillies 8-5 and even the NLCS at a game each heading into Game 3 Friday at Citizens Bank Park.
It’s funny how these teams are mirroring one another.
In fact, the Phillies almost had a rally of their own down four runs in the eighth inning, only to have it blown up by inches.
Rhys Hoskins homered to cut it to 8-5 and after a J.T. Realmuto single, Bryce Harper tried going the other way with what would have been another base hit, only to have it still within the range of Manny Machado, who turned a tough 5-4-3 double play to kill the Phillies rally. Six more inches toward third base and Harper likely beats the shift and the Phillies get the tying run to the plate with no outs.
But he didn’t, and as resilient as the Phillies are, the Padres were that much more resilient in Game 2 – which ought to let you know to be buckled in for a long series. Because these two teams both have their eye on the prize and both are going to try and claim it, no matter the path, no matter how good the opposing pitcher is, they’re going to try to find a way.
For the Phillies, they have to continue to do what they did in Game 2 – hunt for good pitches to hit regardless of the count. If you get a pitch to hit and it’s the first pitch, take a swing, if you are down two strikes, and you get a pitch to hit, take a swing, just try to hit it where it’s pitched and not do too much.
And they need to continue manufacturing runs. Home runs are great, and if you get off a good swing for the fences, that’s awesome, but the Phillies have learned this postseason that the possibility of putting up a big inning by playing small ball. Singles, moving runners, putting balls in play. Productive outs can be a good thing.
But, the Padres know this too. And after cutting the Phillies lead in half on back-to-back homers by Brandon Drury and Josh Bell, they were able to chase Nola in an inning that was a bunch of hits and manufactured runs.
Ha-Seong Kim led off with a single and scored from first on a perfectly executed hit-and-run by Nola’s brother Austin, who singled the opposite way to score Kim. Aaron had Austin down 0-2 in the count, but couldn’t put his brother away, yielding the hit on a high fastball at the very top of the zone.
Jurickson Profar followed with a single and then Nola worked Juan Soto into an 0-2 count as well. Nola tried to get Soto out on an inside fastball, that likely would have been a ball if Soto took it, but protecting with two strikes, Soto was able to get his hands through the zone quickly and turn on the pitch, having it land fair, plating a run and tying the score.
Nola was able to strike out Manny Machado on a great pitch to tie the score, but then Rob Thomson turned to Brad Hand to face Jake Cronenworth to try and get out of this fifth inning. It was the wrong call.
Nola had only thrown 81 pitches, and yes, he had yielded a few hits this inning, but striking out Machado was evidence there was still gas in the tank. Not to mention, Cronenworth had looked helpless in his first two at bats against Nola, striking out both times.
Still, manager Rob Thomson went to Hand against Cronenworth to get a lefty-lefty matchup, Hand got two strikes on Cronenworth, before plunking him with a rogue slider.
This loaded the bases for Drury, who, when you watch his at bats has that look and feel of Cody Ross circa October 2010, not that that’s a good thing, and Drury laced a two-strike single to center field scoring two more runs.
Bell also singled off Hand, to score another run, and that was that.
Hand was lifted, getting no outs and yielding the go-ahead runs. Two batters later, Andrew Bellatti got out of the inning without any further damage, but it was too little too late.
Nola wasn’t as sharp as he’s been in the past six weeks, but he was also grinding and battling out there. Why make the change after he just punched out Machado? That was a curious call for me by Thomson.
I’d rather go down with my best available pitcher throwing then with the front end of an inconsistent bullpen being relied on.
It was out of character for Thomson, who has been willing to stick by his guys in the lineup when they were struggling but not one of the two pitchers who had carried the Phillies to this point in the playoffs.
Going forward though, the Padres have proven that even the best pitchers aren’t perfect. So far in these playoffs, the Padres have won games started by Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, and Aaron Nola. Those six pitchers combined this season were 80-36 with a 2.74 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a 5.00 K/BB ratio.
That’s saying something about this Padres team. They have a very similar attitude as the Phillies right now. And that’s scary. It makes for a long series for sure. If nothing else, the Phillies have to win 2-of-3 at home this weekend to keep things on par and give Nola a shot at retribution next week back in San Diego.
That’s going to come down to positive contributions from guys like Ranger Suarez, Noah Syndergaard, and yes, the front end of an unreliable bullpen.
But, it’s also going to mean the Phillies are going to have to outhit the Padres. Meaning more than Bryce Harper needs to be hot in this series. Schwarber and Hoskins have hit bombs, yes, but that won’t be enough. There needs to be more small ball too. More of what’s been working in the past few weeks.
Because this is going to be nip and tuck until someone wins three more times, and the two sides will exchange body blows as often as they do haymakers.
While some want to compare Nola blowing a 4-0 lead to Cliff Lee doing the same against St. Louis in Game 2 of the NLDS in 2011, sometimes you have to give the other team credit. And while the Phillies have had some mojo and devil magic so far these playoffs, so have the Padres.
It’s going to be a matter of seeing who has enough left to sprinkle around their respective clubhouses over the next five games.
Because it well could take that long to see which of these counterpunchers in the last one standing in the National League.