One would think, that just hours before Bryce Harper was to make his triumphant return to baseball in front of a sold-out Citizens Bank Park, that he would be the focus of all the media attention.

While he did hold court in front of the cameras pre-game and talked about how cool having a standing ovation was going to feel after coming back as quickly as he did, the real buzz around the media throng Friday had very little to do with Harper and instead had everything to do with his teammate Kyle Schwarber and his manager Rob Thomson’s continued reliance on Schwarber at the top of his lineup.

This was being exacerbated by Schwarber, a notoriously slow starter, continuing to appear at the tippy top of Thomson’s lineup card each night, even with Harper back in the lineup.

A four-game losing streak, Schwarber hitting .191, and a restless Twitterverse are a Pavlovian bell-ringing that gets the media salivating to ask questions.

Speaking of ringing bells, the Phillies inability to do that with the regularity expected from the stacked lineup in the absence of Rhys Hoskins and with Harper still not quite himself, despite a Herculean effort in just his second-game back in Los Angeles Wednesday, is a more nuanced reasoning to question Thomson on this matter, and it too was broached in a pre-game pow-wow with the manager.

But not until after social media’s darling reporter, who remember, doesn’t consider information dissemination or any kind of commentary on these platforms as either social or media, got the ball on the conversation with the manager rolling right off the jump in his inimitable fashion:

Now, Philly Rob told a little white lie in his answer. He did speak the truth – that Schwarber is comfortable in the leadoff spot, meaning that’s where he prefers to hit – but he immediately followed that with his fib.

“That’s where he’s had the most production in his career.”

Not so.

Schwarber’s career splits as a leadoff hitter are .222/.317/.515 for an .832 OPS. He’s had more plate appearances out of the leadoff hole than anywhere else in the lineup (1,116) but of the five spots in the order where he’s had at least 300 plate appearances, His .222 batting average ranks fourth. His .317 on base percentage also ranks fourth and although his .515 slugging percentage ranks second, his .832 OPS ranks, yep, you guessed it, fourth.

In fact, his tOPS+, which rates a player’s OPS within a specific split, in this case the spot in the batting order he hits, relative to his usual OPS, is 98 out of the leadoff spot. The statistical measure uses 100 as his baseline, meaning he is below his own usual average production when he hits leadoff.

His most productive spot in the order? Cleanup, where the slash line is .274/.375/.563 with an OPS of .938 and a tOPS+ of 125, or 25% better than his average production.

So Topper is being a little disingenuous with his answer there. But he defends his lineup construction. After all, Schwarber was the Phillies’ primary leadoff hitter a season ago, ended up leading the National League in home runs and was truly the catalyst for a team that reached the World Series.

And it’s easy to see why Thomson would trust his gut here because of that, and also because Schwarber never really seems to start hitting well until June, as in his career, Schwarber is .206/.312/.421 for a .723 OPS from March through May while he is .244/.338/.527 for an .865 OPS from June through October.

But here’s the thing – this is 2023, not 2022.

Last year you had Rhys Hoskins providing power as well. You had Bryce Harper as a power threat, although he did miss six weeks with a fractured thumb, but Darick Hall was available to fill in admirably on the power front. As such, Schwarber wasn’t the lone source of expected long ball outcomes.

Right now, he kind of is.

That’s not to say guys like Nick Castellanos, or Brandon Marsh, or J.T. Realmuto aren’t capable of popping balls out of the park further down the lineup, nor does it mean Harper won’t round back into form the more he plays, but in the moment, Schwarber is the one guy in the Phillies lineup you look at and think of home runs.

After a few other queries from the media, I asked Thomson this question:

“Even if Kyle gets going and produces out of the leadoff spot like you guys have seen in the past, if you are not getting enough power from further down the lineup, would you think about making a change?”

Thomson’s answer was kind of dismissive:

“We’d look at it,” he said. “Yeah. We’d look at it.”

It was like the baseball Gods heard this conversation and set it up for the Phillies Friday. It was the bottom of the ninth, one out, with two runners on base and Schwarber stepping to the plate down two runs:

Both Schwarber and Turner struck out and the Phillies lost their fifth-straight game, 5-3.

To be fair to Schwarber, he should have walked. A 2-1 pitch from Kenley Jansen was not a strike (see NO. 3 below):

Nevertheless, contact is key here, and Schwarber seems to have a lot more swing and miss than usual so far this season. His chase rate is up 2.2% from last season and his whiff rate is up 2.9%.

Trea Turner is another issue altogether, as he is in one of the worst prolonged funks of his career, but a real case can be made to try things differently with this lineup now – before things get too far away from the Phillies.

That’s not to say Thomson can’t go back to this lineup down the road, once things are clicking more, but for now, you have to maximize your strengths and minimize your weaknesses.

Harper admitted himself, it’s going to be awhile before he’s really himself again, so, if that means his power numbers aren’t going to come until later, why not put him in a more useful spot where his hits and walks will be more beneficial – like leadoff or No. 2?

I know he’s a guy who prefers to hit three or four, but this is only for the here and now, to get the offense on the right track, because the Phillies have scored three or fewer runs in 16 of 33 games so far.

Bryson Stott isn’t the solution in the moment either. Yes, he sees a lot of pitches, but once the Phillies moved him to the leadoff spot, it didn’t translate to good production. (.261/.301/.375 – .676 OPS).

I’ve been banging the drum for this lineup for a week now:

  1. Turner
  2. Harper
  3. Castellanos
  4. Schwarber
  5. Realmuto
  6. Marsh
  7. Bohm
  8. Stott
  9. Sosa

The Phillies won’t take my advice. Hell, what do I know? But, they have to do something to break out of this malaise, and switching up the lineup may be just the wakeup call they need.

Other notes from the loss to Boston

  • Zack Wheeler wasn’t great. He pitched 5 1/3 innings and allowed five runs, four earned, on seven hits while striking out five. “That just wasn’t a good game for me,” Wheeler said. “I was pulling a lot of fastballs. Something was just a little off. I couldn’t pinpoint what it was.”
  • His defense failed him in the first inning as Schwarber dropped a flyball that lead tot he unearned run. The ball was hit between him and centerfielder Dalton Guthrie. Both guys called for it at the same time but then Schwarber called Guthrie off a second time and stutter-stepped at the last minute to avoid possible contact and the ball popped in an out of his glove. “It was in my glove and it had to stay there,” Schwarber said. “I have to be better.”
  • Speaking of Guthrie, he made his first start since being called up to replace the injured Cristian Pache on the bench. He struck out all three times he batted.
  • The Phillies struck out 14 times in the game. They left eight men on base. Neither number is good and both are happening with too much frequency.
  • Nick Castellanos was thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double in the second inning. It was the 12th time this season a Phillie has been thrown out on base during a live ball in play. That’s tied for the most in the majors.
  • Castellanos did eventually get his double, driving in the first Phillies run of the game. He now has 12 doubles on the season, tied for tops in the National League.
  • The Phillies bullpen was very good in relief of Wheeler and kept the team in the game. Connor Brogdon, Gregory Soto and Andrew Vazquez combined for 3 2/3 innings allowing just one hit and one walk and no runs. Vazquez has been a pleasant surprise. The 29-year-old journeyman has a 1.69 ERA and a decent 1.25 WHIP pitching in 16 innings, mostly when the team is trailing and trying to stay in it.
  • The Phillies made a roster move Thursday, sending Yunior Marte back to the minors and selecting the contract of Jeff Hoffman. To make room for Hoffman they DFA’d James McArthur, a starting pitcher who had an ERA north of seven in Lehigh Valley. Hoffman, 30, was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect for the Colorado Rockies but has always had trouble with command. He actually was struggling with that in the minors as well, but he had an opt-out clause in his contract if he wasn’t added to the 40-man roster that was expiring and he planned to use it. Rather than lose him, the Phillies wanted to give him a chance, so they called him up.
  • With an off day Monday, the Phillies are reconfiguring the rotation and throwing both Aaron Nola and Wheeler against Toronto next week. This means Matt Strahm is being skipped, but he is available out of the bullpen. Thomson said he could appear as early as Saturday in a relief role.
  • Ranger Suarez is scheduled for a four-inning and/or 65-pitch rehab assignment Sunday in Lehigh Valley. If all goes well he is expected to rejoin the Phillies for their trip to Colorado next weekend.
  • Nick Nelson, who is no longer on the I.L. and was optioned to the minors, will throw five innings and/or 80 pitches Friday for double-A Reading. With Suarez likely to be slotted into Strahm’s spot, and another off day Thursday, Bailey Falter and Nelson would both be pitching on the same days starting Friday which could indicate the team is considering swapping Nelson for Falter if Falter doesn’t start to show different results after his next two starts.
  • Andrew Bellatti, who has been out of action for a couple weeks with triceps tendinitis in his right arm, will begin his rehab assignment Friday with single-A Clearwater.