Phillies

With Andrew Painter Seemingly Done for the Year, the Question of Trading Him Becomes a Legitimate One

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Jul 19th, 2023 · 9:54 AM EDT

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Now we go from the Posidelphia of four straight Phillies wins to some Negadelphia, via Scott Lauber at the Inquirer:

Don’t expect to see Andrew Painter in the majors this season.

Two weeks after feeling soreness in his right elbow, the Phillies’ top prospect has not resumed a throwing program at the team’s training facility in Clearwater, Fla., manager Rob Thomson revealed Tuesday.

“He’s still feeling something,” Thomson said.

Thomson has not officially ruled Painter out for the year. There’s been no press release, no Ken Rosenthal report, nothing like that, but we’re working off a follow-up quote that reads like this:

Rob Thomson on Andrew Painter, who is still feeling some symptoms in his elbow: “All I can tell you is we are going to be very careful with this guy. And we’re gonna take our time, and if that means he doesn’t pitch this year, then that’s what it is.”

— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) July 18, 2023

Taking that at face value, then adding in the fact that Painter is still feeling soreness in mid-July and hasn’t resumed throwing, then it’s pretty safe to assume he’s not going to factor in this season.

Naturally, then, the discussion shifts to trades. Do you move Painter as the top prospect in a “win-now” type of thing that brings back someone like Juan Soto? That’s the hypothetical of the day, and believe it or not there were a couple of excellent calls on 94 WIP this morning where the listeners were making a lot of salient points, just talking in general about the timeline aspect of this. We don’t know when Painter will pitch again, right? We have no clue. Could be next year, might not be 2025 if he needs surgery and a full reset. So if you’re in position to go get someone like Soto or whomever, do you part with Painter simply because his recovery timetable might run past your championship window?

That, ultimately, is the question.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

If Painter, at worst, is Stephen Strasburg 2.0, and you get eight solid seasons out of a guy who really takes off around age 22 or age 23, then does that mesh with the contending window? Or, do you believe he’s on the Scherzer/Verlander path and worth the wait, even if it brings you past the Zack Wheeler contract and leaves you with Bryce Harper and Trea Turner closer to age 35 than 30? Think about the Aaron Nola situation as well.

Most Phillies fans would have said in recent weeks that Painter is absolutely untouchable, and that was probably the right stance. But with this update, these are now legitimate questions to ask.

The thing with Soto, specifically, is that you get another arbitration year before he’s an unresticted free agent. You negotiate an extension as soon as that deal goes official. He’s also just 24 years old and clearly half-assing it in San Diego because he seems uninterested. The question of laziness is a real one, so you’re banking on the idea that he just needs a change of scenery. If you’re talking about Ohtani, however, that’s a no-go, at least for me. Are we moving our best pitching prospect in years for a Shohei rental? That is pretty tough to figure, because there’s no way he’s signing an extension here.

Trading Painter might not be the right thing to do, but if you’re one of those people who thinks the Phillies have to step on the gas now, then Painter is your Ace of Spades. Good Motorhead song by the way. Dave Dombrowski and the Phils really have to think hard about this one.