Each summer, we look to our sister site Sports Betting Dime for data models that help us dive into Eagles season predictions.

SBD uses a couple of different formulas to determine strength of schedule, win probability, and against-the-spread power ranking, which right now has the Birds listed as the NFL’s third-best team. As a simple exercise, SBD takes the 2023 opening lines and calculates the sum of spreads over the course of 17 games, which amounts to a 56 point total for the Eagles:

 

In simple terms, if you add up all of the spreads over 17 games, the Birds come out as a -56 favorite across the board.

Notably, when looking through past seasons with this model:

  • A team from the top four in ATS +/- has won the Super Bowl in four of the last eight seasons
  • A team from the top eight has won the Super Bowl each of the last five seasons
  • A team from the top four in ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in six of the last eight seasons – the last two years were the two times this trend has failed

So the Birds are sitting in a good spot, based on recent trends. For some context, they went into last season with a -28 ATS number and made the Super Bowl, while Kansas City was a -53 and won it all.

Furthermore, author Matt McEwan writes:

“It’s worth noting last year’s top-ranked team (Buffalo) had an ATS +/- of -85, which is pretty comparable to the Chiefs this year. However, the previous two years saw the #1 team in our NFL power rankings listed at -115 and -106, respectively. Even in 2017, 2018, and 2019, when we only had spreads for 15 games —only a 16-game schedule in these seasons and sportsbooks did not release lines for Week 17—we saw better ATS +/- numbers than this season.

The takeaway from this is more parity to be expected this season. The league does not possess any team who stands so far above the rest.”

Should be a fun season. Go Birds.

Click here for the full Power Rankings report.