Doing some pre-NLCS reading this weekend and came across a story in The Athletic titled “Diamondbacks-Phillies NLCS predictions: Our experts make their picks.” All 23 writers that they polled picked the Phillies to win the series, so it was a 100% to 0% split. A clean sweep. Here’s just one section from the story:

Elsewhere, FOX Sports is also backing the Phillies via Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman.

Mintz: Hard not to pick the Phillies … so I’ll pick the Phillies. The Diamondbacks’ biggest weakness is their pitching depth, a weakness that was mitigated by the short series in the previous two rounds. They have no such protection in the best-of-seven NLCS. Arizona will more or less have to traverse back-to-back bullpen games in Game 3 and Game 4, while Philly can lean on postseason monster Ranger Suárez and then either Taijuan Walker or Cristopher Sánchez. 

…

Shusterman: Phillies in seven. These Snakes are no joke, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off the upset, as my seven-game call reflects. But this Phillies team is rolling, and the home-field advantage is too strong to pick against.

Aha, wait, finally, someone picking the Diamondbacks to win the series. It’s David Schoenfield. In an ESPN column, 10 experts pick the Phillies to win and he goes the opposite way, writing this:

Schoenfield: Diamondbacks in 7

MVP: Corbin Carroll

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Nobody is going to pick the Diamondbacks, which underestimates that OF COURSE Arizona has a chance to win, even if Philly has all those vibes going right now. Advice to Diamondbacks players: Don’t say anything about Bryce Harper that could lead to the Phillies wearing T-shirts that mock you in a champagne celebration.

So in a small sampling of three stories, ESPN, FOX, and The Athletic, that’s 35 writers picking the Phillies and one picking the Diamondbacks.

I looked at 6-7 similar stories, just generic NLCS pick/preview stories, and couldn’t find anybody outside of Schoenfield picking the D Backs. One guy from an Arizona newspaper liked his guys at +1.5 but wouldn’t back them on the moneyline. All six Inquirer writers picked the Phils.


I’ll tell ya what, I’m not sure I like how heavily favored the Phillies are in this series. Sure, they’re the betting favorite. They have home field advantage and they’re raking. The vibes are good. But Arizona is no joke. They didn’t get here for no reason. Say what you will about the Dodgers being postseason chokers, but Arizona went to Milwaukee, beat Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, then smoked Clayton Kershaw in LA. They’ve won four of their five postseason games on the road and are unbeaten. They’ve got nothing to lose. They’re kind of like the Phillies last year, a #6 seed playing with house money and yadda yadda.

Not sure about the DNA of this Arizona team, but I wonder if they’re doing the 2017 Eagles thing in their clubhouse. “Hungry dogs run faster” and all of that. I think the Phillies are the better team and get the benefit of opening at CBP, but we should all feel at least a baseline level of discomfort being this heavily favored. Hopefully the guys come out and handle business, no bulletin board material or anything like that. No “atta boy Corbin Carroll” in the locker room. No popping off in the papers, as Darren Daulton once said: