The Flyers were given a 6.4% chance to make the playoffs on Monday morning, and after Tuesday’s results, not much has changed.

Detroit beat the Canadiens in overtime, the Capitals beat the Bruins in regulation, and the Penguins beat the useless Predators, also in regulation. The Isles beat New Jersey to clinch, so they’re out of the picture, meaning it’s down to the Caps, Wings, Yinzers, and Flyers for the final spot.

Here’s how the Flyers get in:

  1. beat Washington in regulation
  2. Red Wings lose in Montreal in regulation
  3. Penguins lose at Islanders in regulation

It would create a three-way tie for 89 points between the Flyers, Capitals, and Red Wings, then the tiebreaker goes like this:

  • Red Wings OUT because they are last in the “regulation wins” tiebreaker
  • Flyers and Caps are tied in regulation wins (RW)
  • Flyers and Caps also tied in regulation+overtime wins (ROW)
  • total wins? also tied at 39 each
  • head to head points is tied 2-2

So they’d have to go to a FIFTH tiebreaker, which is goal differential, and the Flyers would win that.

The problem is that the Penguins probably aren’t losing in regulation on Wednesday to an Islanders team that already clinched. How hard are the Isles going to be trying? Can’t imagine it’s going to be very hard. And you can’t have any of these games go to overtime, so you’re looking at a situation where if the Flyers are tied with something like 6-7 minutes remaining in the third period, out comes Sam Ersson. It’ll be compelling, if nothing else.

Regardless, the fact that they’re even in this position is a miracle. Late collapse being what it is, they weren’t supposed to be here, and the the playoff race coming down to the final game of the season really is something else. Maybe they can go out on a high note. Maybe the Penguinos choke in the finale. I’ll be cheering for Pittsburgh to stumble over a stolen palette of Jaromir Jagr bobbleheads on Long Island.