The NHL draft lottery is on Tuesday night and here’s how Tankathon’s simulator looks:

There’s a 0% chance to move up to #1 overall and a 2.5% chance to move up to #2 overall, so you’re telling me there’s a chance, as Lloyd Christmas once said. The reason they can’t go up to #1 overall is because the NHL tweaked the rules a few years ago to make it so you can only go up a maximum of 10 spots. That’s why their ceiling is #2 overall. If they had finished 11th overall, that slim chance of moving up to #1 would be in play.

I ran the simulator ten times in a row and got the following results:

  1. 12th
  2. 12th
  3. 12th
  4. 12th
  5. 12th
  6. 12th
  7. 12th
  8. 12th
  9. 12th
  10. 12th

So they are probably selecting 12th. The good thing is that the NHL draftniks say there’s depth beyond the top prospects. There’s a decent crop of centers hitting 10 to 15 on these lists, Jarome Iginla’s kid included. There’s a 6’3″ righty defenseman named Carter Yakemchuk being mocked in the 11 to 13 range, and a Finnish center named Konsta Helenius getting the same love.

Seems like the Flyers will be in good shape if they remain at 12.