Arena Debate: Perusing the 2024 Sixers and Flyers Schedules for Narrative Evidence
As you know, there’s been a lot of talk about schedules and concerts and competitive advantages when it comes to the Sixers arena debate.
Ownership would like to take the team to Market Street and build a new arena, while Comcast-Spectacor wants the Sixers to join the Flyers and Phillies in a re-imagined South Philadelphia sports complex. Things may finally progress in one direction or the other after the long-awaited city study was released on August 26th, totaling 388 pages over four separate documents.
One of the things the Sixers say is that being the primary tenant in their own building will allow them to “control their own destiny,” as David Adelman explained to us last summer:
“What do I mean by that? When you look at schedule, and you guys are sports guys so I want you to do some research – we play more 5 out of 7 nights and more back to backs than anyone else in the league, on average. We’ve been home once for Christmas the last 11 years, I think. The way the schedule works is the Flyers get their dates, the concerts get their dates, and then we get the rest. You don’t see us with a lot of weekend day games, but you see the Flyers with a lot of them. Great, it’s their building, they should do what they want…. (But) you guys do the math. We wound up as the three seed (in the playoffs) this year. Imagine if we had a few less back-to-back games or a few less five games out of seven or six games out of seven. That makes a difference.”
We looked through data from recent years and found that the Sixers were generally on the higher side of the NBA when it came to back-to-back games, 5 in 7s, and limited rest, though the back-to-back issue was worse during the early part of HBSE’s tenure. On the other side, according to More Hockey Stats, the Flyers have been above the back-to-back NHL league average every single season since 2013.
The determination back then was that both teams seem to be slightly disadvantaged by having to share an arena, and face more congestion than their one-team-arena counterparts.
With the Flyers’ and Sixers’ 2024-2025 schedules now both released, I thought it might be a good time to go through both and revisit some of the talking points to see what we can learn.
Sixers:
- 5 in 7s: zero
- back to backs: 15
- holidays: six-game road trip from Christmas night (at Boston), through January 4th
- Saturday home games: 5
- Saturday road games: 6
- one day of rest: 45 times
- two days or more of rest: 16 times
- December 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th games determined by in-league tournament progress*
There are five home/home back-to-backs on the Sixers’ schedule and the rest are split B2Bs or road/road. Their longest road trip is 11 days and six games, and longest home stand is nine days, six games. There are eight Friday home games, five Saturday home games, and six Sunday home games.
Flyers:
- 5 in 7s: zero
- back to backs: 14
- holidays: six-game road trip from Monday, December 23rd, through Sunday, January 5th
- Saturday home games: 13
- Saturday road games: 10
- one day of rest: 45 times
- two days or more of rest: 19
The Flyers only have two home/home B2Bs this year. Everything else is road/road or split. Notice, at this time, that they play the same amount of one-day rest games as the Sixers, though they have a few more gaps that provide two or more days of rest, which is consistent with NHL scheduling.
Wells Fargo Center:
- 15 non-Flyers, non-Sixers events currently scheduled during combined NBA and NHL regular season
- four Flyers/Sixers doubleheaders
- 88 currently open nights (Wings schedule not out yet, etc)
- Disney on Ice: 20 shows over on the following eight days – 12/27, 12/28, 12/30, 12/31, 1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4
Obviously one of the bigger takeaways is that both teams are on lengthy road trips over the Christmas holiday. Xmas night actually is open on the Wells Fargo Center calendar, but both the Flyers and Sixers will be gone for a week when local fans get their typical time off.
I reached out to both Comcast-Spectacor and HBSE to see if they had any data they were interested in sharing. Comcast-Spectacor provided the following bulletpoints:
- Flyers are 4th in NHL on number of Saturday games (13).
- Flyers are 22nd in the NHL on Weekend Games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) (17).
- Sixers are 2nd in NBA for Friday games (8).
- Sixers are 4th in NBA for Weekend Games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) (19).
Reminder that the Sixers will have an additional December home game once the in-season tournament dates shake out, so there’s the caveat that we can’t get the full NBA picture until group play concludes. Comcast also shared a chart with the number of weekend games for the Flyers and Sixers broken out by month:
- October: Flyers 5, Sixers 2
- November: Flyers 8, Sixers 7
- December: Flyers 5, Sixers 4
- January: Flyers 7, Sixers 9
- February: Flyers 4, Sixers 7
- March: Flyers 10, sixers 7
- Aprils: Flyers 2, Sixers 4
When it comes to filling all of these dates, it’s been explained that the scheduling process is collaborative, with each team taking turns picking out dates based on arena availability. When the exercise is complete, the teams share those dates with the NBA and NHL and the leagues then finalize those dates based on their preference, for example, national television slots that might dictate that the Flyers play at X date and time instead of Y date and time. So ultimately there’s a final step of league approval after the Flyers and Sixers do their thing.
“The Flyers and 76ers have a collaborative and unique scheduling process that provides equal opportunities to both teams,” said Dan Hilferty, Chairman and CEO of Comcast-Spectacor. “This process starts with both teams meeting to look at the next season’s calendar and taking turns choosing preferred dates based on availability of the Wells Fargo Center over the next year. At the end of this process, both teams have around 80 to 90 preferred dates which are shared with their respective leagues. From here, the NBA and NHL work to determine the final schedule. We are confident that this process is fair to everyone involved and ensures both teams receives access to their preferred dates throughout the year.”
The thing that makes this exercise difficult is taking the local data and comparing it to every other NHL and NBA team out there. We have past data for back-to-backs, rest days, and 5 in 7s, but nothing for 2024 yet, and the only way we can truly determine advantage or disadvantage here is by going piece-by-piece through 50+ individual schedules and compiling the data ourselves.
We don’t have the manpower to do it, because we are a two-person blog, but we can cherry pick a couple of teams that don’t share their winter sports arena with an NBA or NHL counterpart, or local college program, and look for some surface-level observations. I picked the Sacramento Kings, Orlando Magic, Buffalo Sabres, and San Jose Sharks.
Kings
- 5 in 7s: 2
- back to backs: 12
- holidays: five home games, one road game between 12/25 and 1/4
- Saturday home games: 4
- Saturday road games: 7
- one day of rest: 54
- two days or more of rest: 15
The Kings play fewer back-to-backs than the Sixers and Flyers but have a couple of 5 in 7s on their schedule. The lack of Saturday games is a little bit of a head scratcher. There is a slew of concerts early, but very little on the calendar after November, and there are quite a bit of open days on the Golden 1 Center calendar.
Magic
- 5 in 7s: none
- back to backs: 13
- holidays: six game home stand from 12/19 to the end of the month, then on the road New Year’s Day
- Saturday home games: 5
- Saturday road games: 3
- one day of rest: 51
- two days or more of rest: 12
Same thing as the Kings. Fewer back-to-backs for the Magic, playing in a one-team arena that has a smattering of concerts and events.
Sabres
- 5 in 7s: none
- back to backs: 13
- holidays: some home, some road
- Saturday home games: 9
- Saturday road games: 15
- one day of rest: 45
- two days or more of rest: 24
Similar to the Wells Fargo Center, there is a National Lacrosse League team playing here, but lower B2B number and plenty of extra rest.
Sharks
- 5 in 7s: 0
- back to backs: 11
- holidays: mixed home and road through 1/1
- Saturday home games: 12
- Saturday road games: 6
- one day of rest: 47
- two days or more of rest: 21
Concerts and events early, mostly empty calendar later.
Again, not a comprehensive bit of data there, but all four of those teams are playing fewer back-to-backs than the Sixers and Flyers. None of them have to go on long holiday road trips, and what’s interesting is that it seems like every arena on Earth hosts Disney on Ice at some point, but the Philly dates seem to coincide with the holidays, whereas other cities get DOI in November, early December, etc.
As far as takeaways, it does look like there’s the slightest of disadvantages for both teams because of the higher back-to-back number, and while the Sixers don’t get a lot of Saturday home games, there are a good amount of Friday home games to make up for it, so you can view the weekend thing however you choose. And of course, teams like the Magic, Kings, Sabres, and Sharks don’t have to ‘draft’ with an NHL or NBA counterpart, so they can submit preferred dates to the league with only concerts and events to navigate. That’s one of the Sixers’ main talking points, the idea that non-sporting events block off certain days on the calendar.
Notable as well is the fact that the last two NBA title winners are the Celtics and Nuggets, who share buildings with the Bruins and Avalanche. The Avalanche also won a title a few seasons ago, so you could take that at face value and craft a simple argument that scheduling didn’t affect their level of competitiveness. In the last three years alone, the Bruins have won 47, 65, and 51 games while the Celtics also won 64, 57, and 51, so they were, at the same time, among the very best in each sport. That’s similar with the Avs and Nuggets, who have respectively won 50, 51, and 56, and 57, 53, and 48 games + two championships in three years. Maybe when you have players like Nikola Jokic, Nathan MacKinnon, Jayson Tatum, and David Pastrnak, you overcome whatever inequities the building sharing throws at you.
Summarizing the basic level of data here, it seems like the Flyers and Sixers not having to work together would create a slight advantage for each, and reduce that back-to-back number while eliminating the need for collaboration. How much of a tangible difference that would make is hard to define, since you’re dealing with nebulous concepts. How much rest is enough rest? Does playing at home on the holidays affect player mentality? Does your current roster feature a player, or players, who could benefit from fewer back-to-backs? (Joel Embiid) Do you have two legitimate goaltenders, or does a clogged schedule mean one needs a rest, forcing the backup into action? (Sam Ersson, etc) These are the types of questions that don’t always have consistent answers because there are a lot of variables at play.