There are a bunch of #1 seed scenario charts floating around out there. This is probably the easiest to follow, from Philly Fly on Instagram:

 

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All three teams are 12-2 with three games remaining. So scenario one is easy to follow. If the Eagles win out and the Lions and Vikings both slip up, the Birds are the #1 seed. And if those teams lose twice or more, the Birds can lose once and still claim the top spot. Note that Minnesota and Detroit have to play each other one more time, so there’s a guaranteed loss, unless that game goes to a tie, which is highly unlikely. The most likely scenario that would favor the Eagles is the Vikings losing to the Packers and then rebounding to beat the Lions. (EDIT because that sentence is dumb – the likely LOSS for the Vikings is the Packers, which would mean they can’t catch the Lions in Week 18, but ONLY if the Lions take care of business against San Fran and Chicago. otherwise you’re looking at a situation where Minnesota is eliminated from contention and would likely sit their starters)

If a tiebreaker comes into play, here’s how the NFL does it:

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

The Eagles don’t have the Lions or Vikings on the schedule, so tiebreaker one is not applicable. They are not in the same division, so tiebreaker two is also not applicable. Common games would also be a wash. The thing that helps the Lions against the Eagles is that one of their two losses is out of conference (Buffalo), while the Eagles have two in-conference losses (Tampa/Atlanta), so that’s why Detroit needs to lose.

In terms of Minnesota, strength of victory comes into play in a couple of these scenarios. It’s the combined record of teams you beat. The Eagles currently have the better SOV, at .440, while Minnesota is at .387. The problem is that the Vikings have a more difficult slate to finish up with, and an opportunity to jump the Birds in SOV, especially if one of those wins is against the 12-2 Lions. Their other games are against the 8-6 Seahawks and 10-4 Packers, while two of the Eagles’ three remaining opponents have losing records. So we have to wait and see. Detroit needs to lose regardless, but Seattle or Green Bay coming through against Minny would be huge.