Union's Red-Hot Start Hasn't Entirely Moved the Betting Needle, but there's Value on Tai Baribo

We would be remiss to go through this week without giving a nod to the red-hot Union, who are 3-0-0 for the first time in franchise history and 1st place in Major League Soccer’s Eastern Conference. They are 2-0 on the road, have scored the league’s most goals, and Tai Baribo is the Golden Boot leader with twice as many goals as the next guy on the list, plus this:

The @PhilaUnion’s Tai Baribo has more goals than two-thirds of the teams in MLS with six in the opening three games of the season and has more @MLS history in his sights. pic.twitter.com/5mGZaAJyPm

— MLS Communications (@MLS_PR) March 12, 2025

This start has moved the betting needle for Baribo, but not so much for the team itself.

BetMGM made public some MLS futures insights on Thursday morning, and Baribo only has 3.3% of the tickets and 1.9% of the handle to finish as the league’s top scorer. He did, however, move from opening odds of +10000 to +900 and +800 for the Golden Boot, though he’s tied with Luis Suarez as the third favorite behind Lionel Messi and last year’s winner, Christian Benteke. That’s a combination of Baribo’s competition for the award coming from bona fide superstars while, at the same time, the Union don’t have to balance regular season play in March with the CONCACAF Champion’s Cup.

On the MLS Cup side, the Union opened at +2200 to win the title and have improved only to +2000 despite the strong start. There are six teams ahead of them and they’re tied with Red Bull and Atlanta in 7th place. Philly MLS Cup bets amount for 1.4% of the tickets and 0.4% of the handle.

If you’re feeling itchy to get in on this, Baribo is worth a sprinkle at +800. Yes, the Union are only three games into a 34-game regular season, but Baribo already has 22 goals in just 29 Union appearances across all competitions and has carried his 2024 form into 2025.

Keep in mind, as disappointing as the Union were last year, they scored the third-most goals in the East, behind only Miami and Columbus, who finished first and second. The style that Bradley Carnell installed is an active, chaotic pressing style and it’s so far resulted in a lot of opponent turnovers and a directness that’s seen the Union rip off 10 goals in three games. Droit Aut But, or “straight to the goal” as the classic Marseille phrase goes. The Union win the ball and immediately look to move forward, which bodes well for Baribo’s chances to continue racking up goals. Even if the team’s overall form peters out, he’s probably going to keep scoring.

There’s betting value here if you want to throw down a few units. Conversely, we can put our money into NJ online casino and online slots instead. Doop doop.