Sports Gambling

Three Saturday NCAA Tournament Upset Picks

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: Mar 20th, 2021 · 7:00 AM EDT

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With the dust now settled following a crazy Friday of unpredictable finishes and wild upsets, we quickly turn our attention to Saturday’s slate of March Madness action.

With another full day of intriguing matchups on the schedule, let’s jump into the full board and take a look at three Saturday NCAA Tournament upset picks.

Saturday NCAA Tournament Upset Picks

Friday’s action saw a number of surprises delivered by lower-seeded teams, including stunning upsets delivered by Oral Roberts, North Texas and Oregon State.

What surprises are in store for Saturday’s March Madness action? Let’s get into it with some upset picks.

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No. 13 Ohio over No. 4 Virginia

The Cavaliers were hit with COVID-19 cases last week, forcing them to bow out of the ACC Tourney Semis ahead of their game with Georgia Tech. UVA will now have to piece things together on the fly without the rhythm of normal practice and travel schedules, while also trying to take down a red-hot Ohio team, despite much of the Cavs team not getting into town for this one until Friday.

Virginia’s scoring defense is still elite, allowing the fifth least points per game in the D-1 ranks. However, a deeper dive into that 60.1 ppg figure shows it was just No. 82 in field goal percentage defense (41.6% allowed) and No. 202 in three-point field goal percentage defense (33.9% allowed).

In other words, the Cavaliers shrink the game, but, for the most part, their opponents get quality looks. This could prove devastating for Virginia against an opponent in Ohio that is Top 25 in the nation in both scoring (80.2 ppg) and shooting percentage (48.4%).

The Bobcats are on a 9-1 SU and ATS run that saw them cruise through the MAC Tournament en route to their No. 13 seed.

Part of their hot streak includes four wins as outright dogs, a familiar role that they should embrace in this meeting. In fact, they have covered five of their last six games as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament.

This might be bad news for a Cavaliers group that has dropped six of their last seven games ATS in this tournament as favorites of at least five points, including two outright losses. One of those defeats, a loss to No. 16 seed UMBC, may be the most infamous loss in college basketball history.

Virginia is just 5-6 SU this season when allowing 60+ points (in regulation), a number Ohio has reached in all 23 of their games. In fact, the Bobcats never scored less than 66 points this entire season, topping 70 points in all but two of their outings and even cresting the 80-point mark 12 times (including six of their last seven outings and all three in the MAC Tournament).

Virginia is able to play the low-scoring style it does because it protects the basketball extremely well, don’t give away many fouls, and shoot free throws and the deep ball extremely well.

However, the lower the score, the lower your margin for error, both in terms of winning basketball games and covering large spreads like this one. Ohio won’t make it easy for them either, as the Bobcats commit the 47th least fouls per possession in the nation, minimizing UVA’s chances to grow a lead via free points.

Pick: Ohio Over Virginia

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No. 10 VCU (+175) over No. 7 Oregon

Most people know that Dana Altman’s Oregon teams have proven some of the most profitable ATS in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. However, when it comes to finding good value in a possible outright underdog winner, VCU checks off many of the boxes at which you should be looking.

For starters, the Rams have not lost back-to-back games all season, despite playing in a tough A-10 Conference and starting their season with a non-conference schedule that included three straight games away from home against teams in one of the major tournaments right now (USU, Memphis, WVU).

While the Rams have only won nine of their last 20 NCAA Tournament games outright, they are almost always competitive.

They covered the spread in 15 of those 20 and only lost four of those 20 games by more than five points.

So, they have proven they are likely to be in this game. What could push them over the edge to a win are the little things that they do well. VCU is 32nd in the nation from the free throw line, No. 5 in steals per game, and No. 5 in blocked shots per game.

If Oregon struggles from deep against the Rams’ No. 18 ranked three-point field goal percentage defense, the Ducks could be in trouble.

Pick: VCU over Oregon

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No. 13 UNC-Greensboro over No. 4 Florida State

While No. 13 seeds win just over 20% of their games in the first round of this tournament, this UNC Greensboro team is well positioned to pull off the feat, joining a North Texas squad that did the same yesterday.

The Spartans enter as champs of a stellar Southern Conference which ranks No. 9 in terms of conference RPI, ahead of the Mountain West, A-10, and Missouri Valley. UNC-Greensboro has now won 20+ games in five straight seasons and pushed Gonzaga to the brink in their last Big Dance appearance back in 2018, a game it lost by just four points as a No. 13 seed.

UNC-Greensboro could take advantage of what has been a sloppy Seminoles team down the stretch.

While Florida State was busy turning the ball over a season high 25 times in the ACC Tourney Final against Georgia Tech, Greensboro has protected the ball at an elite level all season long, allowing the 21st least turnovers per possession in the country (15.2%), a number that shrunk to just 10.5% in the conference tournament.

By comparison, Florida State ranks just 238th in that category at 19.7%, and has slipped to 25.8% in its last three games.

Greensboro possesses a game-changing guard in Isaiah Miller. He is outstanding on both ends of the court. The two-time Southern Conference Player of the Year and three-time conference Defensive Player of the Year could take this game over.

The Spartans should not be intimidated either, as only Belmont (15) had more wins away from home this season than their 14 victories.