Phillies

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Prediction, Picks (April 29, 2021)

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: Apr 29th, 2021 · 9:53 AM EDT

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Following a contentious 5-3 victory last night, the Phillies will take the field this afternoon at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals looking for their first road series victory dating all the way back to last August. They will send Aaron Nola (2-1, 2.84 ERA) to the mound to do it. He will be opposed by Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 4.15 ERA). If ending their recent road woes wasn’t enough motivation, the Phillies should be up for this game a day after Bryce Harper was plunked in the face with a 97 mph sinker. This should be an interesting one, for sure.

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds for the final game of this four-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Cardinals odds for this April 29, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Yankees	-1.5 (+125)	-132	O 9 (-110)
Phillies	+1.5 (-148)	+114	U 9 (-110)

Click here to get 100-1 odds on any MLB team to record 1+ hit in any game during the month of April at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction

It would be silly to believe oddsmakers set this line based on the fact that the Phillies have not won back-to-back games since April 3 and April 4, their third and fourth games of the season. However, it’s also hard to wrap one’s head around the fact that Philadelphia, which has won two of the first three games in this series and four of six against St. Louis this season, is only -120 to -130 ahead of this one after opening near -140.

After all, the Phils have ace Aaron Nola on the mound, and he was simply outstanding a two-hit complete game shutout against the Cardinals less than two weeks ago.

Perhaps it’s Nola’s comparatively mediocre career stats in day games (18-17, 3.60 ERA), or the Phillies’ inconsistent offense that has mustered just 11 runs across its last four games. Whatever the motivations for this seemingly low line and negative line move, we are going to take the bait and play the Phillies here to capture the four-game series with a daytime win in St. Louis.

A Closer Look at Nola

Nola’s career day game numbers may be a bit below his standards, but he is 1-0 this season in his lone sunshine start. He lasted 6.2 innings in that Opening Day 3-2 win over Atlanta, allowing just two runs against that vaunted Braves lineup, good for a 2.70 ERA.

This season as a whole has seen Nola excel with a 2.84 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.98. The Phillies are 4-1 in his five starts and he averages 6.1 innings pitched per outing on the season, which, as we are apt to mention, helps minimize the number of arms we should have to see crawl out of that heart-stopping bullpen.

Nola has also been solid against St. Louis in his career with the Phils having won five of his seven starts against the Cardinals. They have also won each of his last three outings against them, allowing one run or less in each of those starts.

In those games, Nola allowed just nine hits over 22 innings pitched with a 0.82 ERA and 25 strikeouts. It doesn’t get more dominant than that.

After being shutdown earlier this month by Nola, the Cardinals will obviously be out for revenge and will want to earn the series split today, but one also has to wonder if their lack of success against Nola in that prior meeting could prompt some lineup changes for this one. St. Louis is already without their offensive leader, Yadier Molina, who got one of the two hits off of Nola in the last meeting.

An Opportunity for Phils

The Cardinals counter today with the lefty, Kwang-hyun Kim, who made the start in his team’s lone win over the Phils in the first series. In fact, the Cardinals have won both of his starts this season and each of his last five dating back to last summer. However, working against the left-hander is his inability to pitch deep into games, meaning we could see more of a Cardinals bullpen which used five guys and allowed two runs in last night’s game.

The Cardinals also might have trouble taking down a Phillies team that is 9-5 in day games and 3-2 against left-handed starters this season. They could catch a reprieve if Bryce Harper is forced to miss after this:

Scary scene as Bryce Harper takes a HBP to the face but leaves the game under his own power pic.twitter.com/CCcVq1AMF0

— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) April 29, 2021

If Joe Girardi was ever going to give Harper a day off, it’s probably today.

That said, the Phillies showed a great deal of emotion last night after both Harper and Didi Gregorius were hit, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them come out fired up today.

Click here to get 20-1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook on Trevor Lawrence to go with the top overall pick.

Talking trends for a second, the Phillies have won eight of the last 11 against St. Louis, including four of the last five at Busch Stadium. Philadelphia has won six of their last seven Game 4s of series and 12 of their last 17 against the National League Central. The Cardinals, who allowed five runs to the Phils in the loss last night, have won just three of their last 10 games after allowing five or more previously. They have also won just one of their last seven games as an underdog.

Phillies vs.  Cardinals Betting Pick

With current available Cardinals just 18-for-75 (.192) lifetime off of Nola with 24 strikeouts and two home runs, it’s difficult to see them doing enough against him to steal the win today. We say ride the Phillies’ ace against a lineup he has proven he can overpower as the Phils finish off their season series with St. Louis in style.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Pick: Phillies (-130)

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