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Sixers vs. Spurs Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 2, 2021)

By Bob Wankel

Published: May 2nd, 2021 · 11:44 AM EDT

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The Philadelphia 76ers are just 17-14 on the road this season, but they will be laying around six points ahead of their meeting with the Spurs in San Antonio tonight. The Spurs, hanging onto the Western Conference’s final play-in spot, are a shockingly poor 13-19 at home this season, helping to justify this large number for the road Sixers. Interestingly, the Sixers have only been favored by six or more points on the road eight times this season. Only three of those spreads have come against teams within each conference’s top 10 spots.

Let’s take a closer look at the top Sixers vs. Spurs game picks and make some predictions for this May 2, 2021 matchup.

Will the double overtime heartbreaking loss that the Spurs endured the other night in Boston linger into tonight’s game, or will Philly, which has not played a game decided by less than 20 points in four straight, struggle late in a potentially close game?

Sixers vs. Spurs Pick (May 2, 2021)

San Antonio is still three games ahead of New Orleans for the final play-in spot in the Western Conference, but the Spurs have dropped two in a row and are staring down the barrel at three straight tough games (Philly tonight, followed by two against the Jazz). If they drop those three games, the standings could look a lot more congested ahead of the home stretch. Plus, if San Antonio can find a way ahead of Golden State or Memphis, both within a half game, the Spurs could avoid a potential play-in matchup with the Blazers or Lakers.

Philadelphia will hold this meeting with similar importance as they are in a dogfight with Brooklyn for the top spot in the East. The 76ers hold the tiebreaker, but are still a half game behind the Nets, who are active tonight against Milwaukee. A win here either propels the Sixers into the Eastern Conference top spot again or sends the Bucks four games behind as the regular season winds down.

The recent game history for each team coupled with both squads’ definitive need to win this one should open up some good betting lanes for us.

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Sixers vs. Spurs Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Spurs at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Hawks	+7 (-108)	+240	O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers	-7 (-113)	-295	U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”76ers” size=”300×250″ site_id=”crossingbroad”]

Bets we Like with a Sixers Win

Ben Simmons To Get 8+ Assists AND Philadelphia 76ers Win By 1-10 (PointsBet +400)

This game is hugely important for the Sixers, and they are playing the front end of a back-to-back, meaning some player management may be in order for a team trying to get their best players fully healthy for a playoff run.

This can also be considered a revenge game for the Spurs, after the 35-point drubbing the Sixers put on them in Philadelphia back in March. Prior to that, however, these two had seen six of their previous eight head-to-head meetings decided by 11 points or less or less points. The Spurs have also played four straight games decided by single digits, the last two of which were losses.

Of the Spurs’ 31 losses this season, 17 have come by single digits (54.8%), with another two coming by 11 points. In fact, six of San Antonio’s last seven losses and eight of their last ten came by 10 or less, as well.

Ben Simmons is an integral part of Philadelphia’s success as they have won seven straight with him in the lineup (and 17 of the last 22). The team is 37-16 (.698) overall when Simmons plays, a superior win percentage to their overall .667 season total (42-21). He clearly makes them a better team, helping ensure the win we need for this prop, but what about the assists?

Regarding Simmons and his assist total, we think this is a great opportunity for him to pile up some dimes.

Simmons averages seven assists per game on the season, which puts us in the ballpark from the jump. However, he hasn’t topped six assists in the three games since his return from an illness. Because of the aforementioned blowouts, none of the Sixers have spent much time on the court, and Simmons is no exception. He didn’t top 27 minutes in any of those three games, which we expect to change dramatically in a closer game tonight.

If guys like Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, etc. are rotated in and out of the lineup more often tonight to keep them ready for tomorrow, Simmons will surely find the ball in his hands on almost every possession, often with a lineup more able and willing to get out in transition. He hasn’t been an assist machine of late, but he does still have 19 games with eight or more assists this season (37.3%) and he posted seven assists in another nine outings.

Ben played just 26 minutes in the other meeting with the Spurs this season and piled up nine assists in just that short time on the court. The matchup, thus, seems favorable, and with an expectation of well over 30 minutes tonight, he should have no problem getting the eight assists we need here for the win.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Any Team Winning Margin (Including Overtime) 6-10 Points (FOXBET +200)

These two teams have played a high percentage of close games in their recent head-to-heads. Only two of the last eight between have landed in this band, but we think the situation tonight begs for a final in this range. The Spurs just played a double overtime heartbreaker against the Celtics with several of their guys logging over an hour on the court. Their two-game slide dropped them to .500 in a crowded West and they are staring down two games at Utah starting tomorrow. This game should carry major importance for the Spurs as their only home game sandwiched between seven on the road.

Philadelphia has not played a close game with everyone healthy in a very long time. If this turns into a tight one, they might not be prepared for it and could fade late. They do, after all, struggle on the road. The Sixers have seen 13 of their 31 road games decided in the 6-10 point band, including seven of the last 11. Philly doesn’t play a ton of nail biters, but we also don’t see the Sixers involved in a blowout tonight. This seems like a great band by which someone should win this one.
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Sixers vs. Spurs Prediction

The spread here seems pretty spot on to us. The Spurs come in off a draining loss, both emotionally and physically, but are also in desperate need of a win here with tough road games to come. Philly hasn’t had to compete wire-to-wire in quite some time and are back on the road where they are not the same team. It’s hard to pick a side in this one.

However, the total does offer a bit of value, we think, as this is a relatively high total given the situation for both teams. With the above factors in play, it’s conceivable that either or both come out flat here and potentially never get it fully together. Both have tough road games tomorrow and there could come a point in this one where someone has to make the call to fold the tent in hopes of loading up tomorrow.

Trends to Know

The Sixers are an under machine on the road this season, playing 20 of their 31 away games under the posted total. San Antonio is not far behind, logging 18 under tickets in 32 home games.

Philly has been more of an over team as a favorite this season but, interestingly, has only played four of 11 games over the total when favored by 5-7 points. The Sixers have actually played 13 of their last 16 road games under and 12 of their last 15 games as favorites under.

As a road favorite, specifically, they have played 25 of their last 35 under. Look for tonight to make it 16 under wins in Philly’s last 22 games overall and seven unders in their last nine after a straight up win.

The Spurs, who are popping home for this one after a week on the road, have played four of their last five under following a seven-day or longer road trip. With 13 of the last 16 here in San Antonio between these two staying under the number, we should be well set up for another low total tonight.

ATS Pick

Our Pick: Phi/SAS Under 221.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -110)

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