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Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 2, 2021)

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: May 2nd, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

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The Phillies failed yet again last night to win consecutive games for the first time since the first week of April, falling to the Mets late. Tonight, the two teams go at it for the ninth time in less than a month, this time with a series win on the line. Will the Phillies roll behind Zach Eflin, or will the Mets get out of Philadelphia with a pair of weekend wins?

Let’s take a look at the Mets vs. Phillies odds for the final game of a three-game weekend set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds (May 2, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Mets vs. Phillies odds for this May 2, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Yankees	-1.5 (+125)	-132	O 9 (-110)
Phillies	+1.5 (-148)	+114	U 9 (-110)

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Mets vs. Phillies Prediction

It’s another Game 3 rubber match for the Phillies tonight as they send Eflin to the hill off his worst start of the season.

Some Added Support

He should get some help with the projected availability of Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, key cogs in the middle of this lineup. Their bats would be a welcome addition for a Philadelphia group that is averaging less than three runs per game in its last seven contests.

Eflin gave up five runs on nine hits across 6 2/3 innings in his last start, a 5-2 loss to the Cardinals. Prior to that, he had pitched in three straight games over the total and had seen seven of his previous nine outings reach at least nine combined runs, thanks to receiving some stellar run support.

The Phils’ right-hander has somehow managed to avoid the Mets since 2019, but in his previous seven starts against them, the two teams had combined to score at least nine runs on five occasions.

Which Guy Will We See?

David Peterson has been a bit of an enigma, both against Philly and in general terms, this season.

He was shelled for six runs in four innings at Citizens Bank Park against the Phils back in early April, only to bounce back and dominate the same lineup, allowing just one run on three hits with 10 strikeouts across six innings at Citi Field the following week.

That dichotomy in his home and away performances against Philly seems to be a microcosm of his season. Peterson has allowed just three runs and seven hits in 12 IP at home (2.25 ERA). On the road, he has given up nine earned runs in 7.1 IP (11.05 ERA).

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The Phillies’ current roster has had plenty of success against Peterson, despite his great start last time out. They have gone 11-for-36 (.306), with seven of those 11 hits going for extra bases, including three home runs. Look for more of the same today as his three career starts against Philadelphia have produced a combined average of 11 runs per game.

The Mets are certainly not your prototypical over play on paper, playing just seven of their 21 games over the posted total number (worst in MLB). However, six of those seven have occurred on the road, where they have played 60 percent of their games over the number.

Much of that is due to them allowing 5.18 runs per game on the road, 1.73 more runs per game than their 3.45 runs against average overall.

As we witnessed in Wheeler’s start last night, the Mets hit pitchers with good WHIPs well. They have played just two  games under the total in their last 11 games against starters with a sub 1.15 WHIP (Eflin boasts a 1.07 WHIP). Similar over production comes from the Mets when they are on the road against righties, as they have played just five of their last 21 away games under in that role.

Trends to Know

• This is a solid subsection of an overall away form that has seen New York play just seven of their last 22 away under the number.
• Look for the Mets, who won 5-4 last night, to extend their run of just three unders in their last 13 games after plating five or more runs prior.
• The Phils have had had some success passing the number when facing left-handed starters, cashing such plays in four of their last five in that role. Philly has played eight of their last 11 at home over the total, as well as eight of their last 11 against the NL East.
• This is a high total in this season’s MLB, but we think it is warranted as the Phillies have played four of their last five over in games with totals in the 9-10.5 range.

 

Mets vs. Phillies Betting Pick

We fully expect a Sunday night shootout here as this head-to-head rivalry produces its eighth game over the total in the last 11 meetings between these two clubs, including a hot 7-1 record over the total in the last eight meetings at Citizens Bank Park.

Our Pick: OVER 9 RUNS (DraftKings Sportsbook -103)

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