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Over/Under Sits at 10 for Nationals vs. Phillies Series Finale
By Joe Tansey
Published:
21 runs were scored in the first two games of the Phillies’ three-game set with the Nationals.
Thursday’s series finale is expected to be the highest-scoring game of the three with the over/under currently at 10.
It’s easily the highest total of the three games. Part of that has to do with the Phils scoring seven runs in each game, but the other component is the pitching matchup.
Nationals starter Brad Lord is primary target for the over. Lord is a cool story. He was working at Home Depot last year and worked his way into the Washington rotation.
However, Lord hasn’t been a great asset to the Nats. He’s allowed 16 hits and eight earned runs over his last three starts. He only lasted four innings in two of those starts and then 4.1 innings in the other.
Add in the fact that the Phils scored five runs off Washington’s relief corps in the series and you have the perfect setup to bet the Phillies team total of over 5.5.
The Phils scored at least six runs in each of their last six wins at Citizens Bank Park. They covered the run line in four of those six contests.
By those trends, the winning formula is to bet either the Phillies money line or run line with the over 5.5 team total.
Lord has particularly been killed by right-handed hitters, who have a .389 batting average against him. Lefties are only hitting .226.
J.T. Realmuto fits the profile the best from a player prop perspective. He has a .306 batting average and 22 hits against righties. Bryson Stott and Max Kepler each have more than 20 hits against righties as well, but as noted above, lefties have had some difficulties versus Lord.
There are some good NJ sportsbook promos and PA betting promos to use for this game. DraftKings has a profit boost available for parlays or SGPs of four legs or more. I’d combine the money line or run line with the team total, Realmuto to hit or have 2+ total bases and Stott to have a hit or have 2+ total bases.
Bet365 also has a 30 percent SGP boost available for Thursday’s MLB games.
While Taijuan Walker certainly hasn’t been dominant, he’s got better numbers than Lord and can be serviceable in this matchup with the Nats. After all, we’re talking about a guy who’s allowed over two earned runs just once in five appearances.
So yeah, a win is expected to complete the sweep and move to 5-1 against the Nationals this season.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.