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Phillies vs. Astros Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 25th

By Matt Modi

Published: Jun 25th, 2025 · 9:34 AM EDT

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The Phillies lost a tough one yesterday, ruining an excellent start from Ranger Suarez in a 1-0 loss to the Astros. Suarez made one mistake on the mound, and unfortunately that one mistake was sent into the stands. That was the only run scored on the day, giving the Astros the victory.

We did managed to correctly predict Suarez to strike out over 4.5 batters, but essentially broke-even on the day as Cam Smith could not get to two total bases.

As for today, the Phillies have a good chance to bounce back with Zack Wheeler on the mound, while also having a good matchup against the Astros starting pitcher Colton Gordon as well. So, for this article, we will be diving into the best MLB home run predictions for the Astros vs. Phillies today, Wednesday June 25.

Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+450) bet365

With Gordon on the mound for the Astros, the Phillies bats should have a great opportunity to hit home runs tonight. On the year, Gordon has allowed a home run ever 18.50 at-bats, which increases to every 16.86 at-bats against RHH specifically. Against righties, he has allowed a barrel rate of 7.63%, HardHit rate of 41.05% and a line-drive + fly-ball rate of over 60%.

While the Phillies admittedly do not have really any right-handed bats that consistently hit lefties hard, Castellanos has been very good recently, both in general and against lefties specifically. Castellanos leads the Phillies in barrels over the last week and 14 days with a healthy seven barrels over the last two weeks.

Over the last 30 days, he has a barrel rate of 16.7% against LHP, which is a solid number. The biggest home run pitch for Gordon is the 4-seam fastball, which righties have hit for a .429 ISO rate and 57.7% HardHit rate, all with the low called-strike + whiff-rate of 18.6%. On the year, Castellanos has a HardHit rate of 66.7% and barrel rate of 14.8% against 4-seamers from LHP, which goes up to 25% over the last month.

Castellanos had two hits above 100 mph exit velocity in a tough matchup against lefty Framber Valdez last night, so let’s hope he can go yard in a better matchup tonight.

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J.T. Realmuto to Hit a Home Run (+425) BetMGM

While Realmuto is not having his best year at the plate (an understatement, admittedly), he joins Castellanos with a good chance to hit a home run tonight. He had three HardHits yesterday, and, similar to Casty, two of which were above 100 mph EV. Realmuto added another two HardHits back on 6/22, so his recent stretch of games have been decent.

The biggest reason to roll with J.T, though, is he similarly hits 4-seam fastballs from LHP very well. He has the second-best barrel rate on the team at 21.4%, along with the third-best HardHit rate of 57.1%. His ground-ball rate is a relatively low 28.6% as well, which is a good sign that he can hit those 4-seamers hard and in the air.

Lastly, Realmuto is one of only two Phillies in the lineup today that has a barrel rate above 10% against LHP on the entire season, which is a solid, albeit unspectacular number.