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First-Place Union a Massive Home Favorite Against Last-Place Montreal
By Joe Tansey
Published:

The first-place Philadelphia Union are one of only two favorites on Wednesday’s Major League Soccer slate with a money line of -200 or higher.
The U are -220 on the money line for a matchup against last-place CF Montreal.
bet365 has an Instant Payout promotion for soccer. If the team you bet on goes ahead by multiple goals, the bet cashes. I’d use that, even with the Union at -220, because they’re probably going to score multiple goals.
The gap in the standings makes the money line understandable, but I find it interesting that Inter Miami was only a -170 favorite against Montreal a few weeks ago for a road game in Quebec.
Anyway, the Union should cruise tonight in a game that could turn out to be huge in the overall Eastern Conference picture. Each of the other top seven teams in the East play each other on Wednesday, so some separation can be gained over a few rivals.
Montreal gave up four to Miami and three to FC Cincinnati in the last few weeks. That’s important for betting any Union props. The money line is big and the Union’s over 1.5 team total sits at -235 at BetMGM.
Montreal’s allowed three or more goals on seven occasions this season. The Union have scored three or more times also on seven occasions.
So there’s the sweet spot trend. I would look into betting the Union team total over 2.5 because of 1) the trends in play and 2) the Union’s overall health. Mikael Uhre is back from injury, so that provides more scoring depth off the bench behind Tai Baribo, Bruno Damiani, and Quinn Sullivan.
Baribo is -105 to score and -150 to score or assist at bet365. That’s the safest Union bet you can make. After all, it’s the team’s leading scorer going up against one of the weaker defenses in MLS.
bet365 has a larger variety of player props, and with how the Union play, there are certain angles to take advantage of with guys that line up further down the field.
Danley Jean Jacques and Jovan Lukic both like to sneak forward from their defensive midfield roles. Lukic is actually second on the team in shot attempts. I’d look into both of them to record a shot on goal. Lukic is -175 to have one SOG, while Danley is +200 to have a SOG.
Lukic’s over 1.5 shots prop is super inflated on its own, but it can be a solid Same Game Parlay piece.
I’d go Union ML, Union TTo2.5, Lukic 2 shots and Baribo 2 shots on goal to get you to +250. It’s hard to find a super-high SGP price for anything because the Union are such a big favorite, but that’s a little something to hold you over until the Phillies come back on Friday.
Kinkead: Just happy to have something to wager on. It’s been a week for NJ online casinos and PA online casino.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.