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What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Phillies Enter Mets Series a -1600 Favorite to Win NL East
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies enter the week in great shape to be the National League East champion.
They come into the three-game series in Queens as the -1600 favorite to win the division at bet365.
That doesn’t mean the NL East race is over just yet, but it can be by the end of the series. Taking a nine or 10-game lead into the weekend would be massive not just in the standings, but to further damage the psyche of the New York Mets.
On Monday, the Phillies are a slight -130 favorite at BetMGM with Cristopher Sanchez going up against Kodai Senga.
Sanchez is on a streak of 14 straight starts of six innings or more that dates back to his first start in June. He only lasted 2.1 innings against the Mets back in April, so I’m sure you can play on a bit of a redemption angle here as well.
Unsurprisingly, Sanchez’s outs recorded prop sits at Over/Under 18.5 with the Over at +150. His strikeout prop sits at Over/Under 6.5 with a healthy +130 price tag on the over.
For Pennsylvania sports betting, I’d look into Sanchez to record a win at +120 as the best prop to bet, though, since the Phillies are in a really nice patch of form right now, while the Mets have been in full blown tailspin mode.
The Mets just went 3-3 last week against Atlanta and Washington (not great!) and they are 7-14 in August.
Senga’s been okay of late, but he hasn’t completed a full six innings since June 6th and he’s allowed 11 earned runs across his last four starts.
Lefties have had better success against Senga with a .228 batting average, so I’d lean toward Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to get hits on Monday compared to the red-hot righties in the Phillies lineup.
Schwarber himself is just -165 to record a hit. It looks crazy, but his hit prop numbers are significantly lower in games where the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.
I’d take the Schwarber hit prop and Sanchez to record a win as straights. I’d combine with Harper to get a hit to get to +330 before you use bet365’s 30 percent Same Game Parlay profit boost.
I would use the Phillies money line as part of your play for BetMGM’s Any Sport parlay token. I’d use the Phils with the Yankees and Brewers money lines to get to +285 before that boost is applied.
Kinkead: I would tail Joe, then collect your winnings and use them for online slots and PA online casino. Ring the bell! Campanazzo!
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.