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Phillies a Slight Underdog in Dodgers Series Opener, Potential NL East Clincher
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies are one win away from securing the National League East title.
The celebration could happen as early as Monday night, or, well, it will be Tuesday morning our time if it happens, at Dodger Stadium.
The Phils are an even-money underdog at ESPN Bet behind Ranger Suarez in a pitching matchup with Emmet Sheehan.
Suarez comes into Monday with one earned run allowed in his last 24 innings across four starts. He had his best start of the season against the Mets last week, when he conceded a single hit and struck out 12 over six innings.
I’m not sure if that level of dominance is possible against a Dodgers lineup full of stars and hitters that have strong numbers against left-handed pitching, but Ranger tends to show up in big moments.
It’d be easy to go right back to Suarez’s strikeout prop, especially because it sits at Over/Under 4.5, but the Dodgers are only a middle-of-the-pack strikeout team against lefties.
I’d be more inclined to bet the Under 5.5 hits allowed for Suarez given his recent dominant form. He’s allowed six hits or fewer in five of his last eight starts.
On the other end, Sheehan’s been really strong at home recently. He had two seven-inning starts in his last two Dodger Stadium appearances. He struck out 19 and allowed just two hits in those games.
With the way both pitchers are performing, I’d at least go after the First Five Innings Under 4.5 at PA or New Jersey sports betting apps. Runs could be hard to come by, even with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani and others in the two lineups.
The Phils can absolutely win and clinch the division on their own on Monday. I wouldn’t advise trying to beat Ohtani or Blake Snell in a playoff-like environment the next two nights.
So why not take a stab at the money line at even money, because at least on paper, this is the best chance the Phils to have to clinch the division with a win in southern California this week.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.