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Run Game Enthusiasts Rejoice! Bet The Rams vs. Eagles Rushing Props
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Eagles’ gauntlet continues on Sunday with a rematch against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Birds are a 3.5-point favorite at ESPN Bet. They’re 1-1 against the spread this season, while the Rams come in with a 2-0 ATS record.
Sunday’s Over/Under currently sits at 44.5. The Rams are 1-1 to the total, while both Eagles games have gone under. The Week 3 total is three points lower than the Weeks 1 and 2 totals set for the Birds.
The defensive numbers explain why the total is in the mid 40s. Neither the Rams nor Eagles have allowed more than 200 passing yards this season. It’s early, but it’s a notable trend if you’re going after props for A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Puka Nacua.
It’s also notable that both defenses allowed more than 100 rushing yards in two games, and look, when you have Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and Kyren Williams on the field, it’s hard to ignore a potential run-heavy game inside the Linc.
Barkley’s rush-yard Over/Under sits at 90.5. It’s interesting that the prop number is that high because Barkley hasn’t gone over the 90-yard mark yet this season. He had 60 yards against the Cowboys and 88 yards versus the Chiefs.
I would feel more than confident in betting the over on Sunday, though, since Barkley ran for 459 yards in two games against the Rams last season.
Jalen Hurts had two sub-200-yard passing games against the Rams over the same time frame. One of those games was obviously altered by weather, but he only had 179 passing yards in the road game, played in a controlled climate.
Hurts’ passing-yard prop sits at Over/Under 191.5, and while that is a strikingly low number for an NFL quarterback, I’d actually be inclined to take the Under on that. Why turn away from Barkley and the run game when it fared so well against the Rams last season?
The best Hurts prop to bet, as has been noted by Kevin and many others, is his Anytime Touchdown prop. He’s listed at -185 at ESPN Bet, a number that could rise as more people wager on it before kickoff.
Barkley’s Anytime TD scorer prop is a more mild -145. I’d strongly argue that Barkley’s TD prop is the better play in terms of matchup and value this week compared to Hurts. Barkley to have 90+ rushing yards and a TD pays out in a +147 Same Game Parlay.
If you’re inclined to bet on the Eagles’ opponent, I’d add Kyren Williams to any Saquon SGP. Williams has a pair of 60-yard performances to start the season and ran for 106 and 72 yards versus the Birds last year.
Barkley 90+ rush yards, Williams 60+ rush yds and both running backs to score gets you to +725.
I’d even make the case for Barkley and Williams to both score twice. Barkley is +400 to score twice. Williams is +550 to score twice. They are +2600 to each find the end zone on two occasions. Be on the look out for PA and NJ sportsbook promos and specials as well.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.