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Villanova a 12.5-Point Home Favorite for Big 5 Clash with Temple
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Villanova is a whopping 12.5-point favorite at BetMGM for Monday’s Big Five Classic clash with Temple.
This winner sets up a meeting against Penn in the Big Five Classic title game on Saturday night, while the loser plays St. Joe’s for third place.
The line makes a ton of sense from a statistical standpoint since Nova is ranked 109 spots ahead of Temple on KenPom. All three of the Owls’ losses came against teams ranked in the KenPom top 120.
Villanova has the higher KenPom rating and the better record at 5-1, but the ‘Cats haven’t really played anybody outside of their season-opening loss to BYU.
Nova’s been a double-digit favorite in its last five games and is 3-2 against the spread in those five victories. Temple’s only been an underdog once this season and lost by 15 points to Rhode Island as a 3.5-point underdog in its most-recent game.
The most consistent thing about either team is the overs in Temple contests. The Owls are 6-1 to the over. Villanova is 3-3 to the total. The Over/Under for Monday night’s game is 149.5.
The Over is absolutely in play because of the brutal three-point defensive numbers. Villanova ranks 364th in three-point defense with a 41.5 opposing three-point percentage. There are 365 teams in men’s Division I basketball.
Temple’s three-point defense is better, but not by much. The Owls’ opponents have hit 38.8 percent of their three-pointers. (By the way, keep those numbers in mind for Saturday against Penn no matter which team advances. Penn has the 19th-best three-point percentage in D1).
So the key for the Over is to hit threes, and you know what, the numbers suggest we’re in good shape. Both teams shoot over 36 percent from deep.
I’d also look to the team totals as another way to take advantage of the three-point disparity. Villanova’s team total is Over/Under 80.5 at bet365, while Temple’s TT sits at O/U 68.5.
Villanova’s gone over 80 points in four of its five wins and allowed over 70 points on three occasions, partly because of the rough three-point defense.
Temple is coming off concessions of 90, 75, and 91 last week in Florida.
For NJ and PA sports betting you’re able to put the team totals in a Same Game Parlay at bet365. Nova o80.5 and Temple o68.5 sits at +190.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.