Ad Disclosure
March Madness: Three Early Picks as Villanova Opens a Slight Underdog, Penn a Big Underdog, and Lehigh a Favorite
Published:
Here are the opening lines for the local teams in March Madness, via bet365:
- #8 Villanova: +2 vs. Utah State, +115 on the moneyline, over/under 147 points
- #14 Penn: +24.5 vs. Illinois, moneyline off the board, over/under 150 points
- #16 Lehigh: -3.5 vs. Prairie View A&M, -165 on the moneyline, over/under 143 points
There’s nothing too surprising here. Nova is the higher seed, but they have to go out to San Diego to play a USU team that won five of six down the stretch, including their conference tournament. Nova stumbled in the Big East quarters and doesn’t have Matt Hodge, so it’s hard to argue with a two-point spread for an 8 vs. 9 game. You can push Nova all the way up to +5.5 and keep those odds below -200. Could be a good piece to throw into a parlay or round robin considering that Nova only has one “bad” loss by more than six points this season, and that was a few days ago. It’s hard to see them putting up two clunkers in a row.
SPORTSBOOK
Bet $10 & Get $365 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!
As for Penn, they’re a huge dog, naturally, but the point total is intriguing. Illinois finished 21st in the country with 84.4 PPG while allowing 69.7 on average. That’s 154 right there. Penn scored 76.1 and allowed 73.3 on average, which is 149.4. If a blowout does take place, note that the Quakers cleared 150 even in lopsided losses to Nova and Providence, so it feels like a good play to ladder the over anywhere between 147 and 152 and expect Illinois to at least do their part. If Penn gets Ethan Roberts back, we’ll return to this.
RE: Lehigh, they’re on a six-game winning streak in which they’ve covered -3.5 four times. PVAM is on a seven-game winning streak in which their smallest margin of victory was four points. It feels like these teams are pretty evenly matched, so gut instinct I’d take the +3.5 for Prairie View. This line is 1.5 at other books, but PV is getting some extra points at bet365.
The one thing I’m gonna lock in now is the Nova moneyline at Kalshi. It’s 45% for a WIN, and while USU has non-conference victories against VCU and Davidson, I just think the Cats played tougher competition all year long:
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com