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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Getting Oh So Close to .500

Crossing Broad Staff

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published:

Mar 31, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter (24) throws a pitch against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park.
Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies (20-22) remain in Boston for game 2 at Fenway Park on May 13th. Coming off a squeaker of a 2-1 victory over the Red Sawks (17-24), neither squad was exactly hitting the cover off the baseball to begin the series. At a few games under .500, we aren’t talking about October playoff implications yet. First pitch is slated for 6:45 PM ET, and while we’ve got big names like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner stepping into the box, this matchup feels more like a mid-May scrap in pursuit of a .500 record. Let’s dive into the odds and figure out how to make some money while trying to stay awake through these grinding at bats.

Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds

  • Moneyline: Phillies +112, Red Sox -132
  • Total: O/U 9 Runs
  • Point Spread: Phillies +1.5 (-175), Red Sox -1.5 (+144)

Odds are provided by consensus sportsbooks

Phillies vs. Red Sox Prediction & Best Bet

The Pick: Under 9 Runs (-115)

If you’re tuning into this game expecting an offensive explosion, don’t. The Under 9 is staring us right in the face with the kind of common-sense logic.

When playing at Fenway this season, the Red Sox are mustering a laughable 2.85 runs per game. The Green Monster is sitting right there, and they’re still barely scratching across three runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies haven’t been much better on the highway, averaging a meager 3.44 runs per game on the road. Combine those averages, and you’re looking at 6.29 total runs.

Neither lineup is working counts or drawing free passes, either. Boston is walking in just 8.80% of their home plate appearances, while Philadelphia sits at a 7.80% walk rate on the road. Boston brings a collective 4.00 team ERA into this matchup, and the Phils counter with a 4.57 ERA. Take the under and enjoy a pleasantly quiet night at the ballpark while having a go with PA online casino or NJ casino apps.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Picks & Predictions

Andrew Painter – Over 2.5 Earned Runs

The young pitcher currently boasts a rough 6.39 ERA. Keeping opposing lineups off the scoreboard has been a nearly insurmountable challenge for him lately. When a starter is hemorrhaging runs practically every time he takes the mound, banking on him to give up at least three to Boston feels less like a gamble and more like an absolute inevitability.

Kyle Schwarber – Over 0.5 Home Runs

Does the streak stay alive? Kyle Schwarber has hit dingers in five straight games. That includes a two-Schwarbomb effort in game 3 of the Rockies series. Schwarbs is hot and we have to bet him to go yard until he cools off.

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