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Phillies Return to Citizens Bank Park a -340 Series Favorite Against Nationals
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies are back in town for a much-needed home stand against the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks.
The much-needed part really refers to the three-game set with the Nats, who just gave up 26 runs in the last two days to the New York Mets.
Washington’s piss-poor overall pitching staff is the primary reason for the Phillies to be listed as a -340 series favorite at DraftKings.
Washington is one of four teams entering Tuesday with a team ERA over 5.00. Baltimore, Colorado, and Miami are the others.
The Phils scored 19 runs on the Nats in the opening series of the season. They posted 37 runs against Colorado and Miami, so you sense a trend here, that the Phils can actually do what good teams do and beat up on the bad teams.
Runs will absolutely be on the menu this week with warmer weather expected and the Nats in town.
However, I might wait to bet the live over in Tuesday’s series opener since MacKenzie Gore and Zack Wheeler are starting.
Gore struck out 13 Phillies in the season opener and has 53 strikeouts across six starts. He’s had at least seven punchouts in five of those appearances.
Wheeler struck out eight batters on March 27, a game in which nine of the 10 runs were scored in the seventh inning or later.
Wheeler’s also had at least seven strikeouts in five of his six starts. The lone exception was a road game against the Cardinals.
To be honest, I was stunned that Gore and Wheeler were both listed at over/under 6.5 strikeouts. That’s an extremely gettable prop for both pitchers.
The Phillies have the eighth-most strikeouts against lefties and the Nationals have the 10th-most strikeouts over the last week.
A lot of the available NJ sportbook promos and PA promos are home run related, like FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday profit boost and DraftKings’ Home Run No Sweat. If you use these promos, look to Phillies players who might get two runs at Washington relievers once Gore is out.
However, I would look into BetMGM’s 20% SGP boost and Bet365’s Safety Net Bet for Big League Tuesdays to combine Wheeler and Gore strikeouts. I’d even add the first five under into that mix.
Wednesday and Thursday’s games are harder to predict because the Phils don’t have a starter listed yet for Wednesday and neither do the Nats for Thursday.
However, I would look into the Phillies team total in both of those games because of how porous the Nationals pitching staff has been.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.