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Bettors Hammered the Penn State UNDER Total Wins and Moved the Line
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Our friends at BetMGM sent over some college football win total futures, and there’s some interesting Penn State data in here:
Win total increases (Open to Now)
- Kansas State 7.5 to 8.5
- Louisville 7.5 to 8.5
- Houston 7.5 to 8.5
- NC State 6.5 to 7.5
- Oklahoma State 5.5 to 6.5
- Minnesota 5.5 to 6.5
- Nebraska 5.5 to 6.5
- Maryland 4.5 to 5.5
- Michigan State 3.5 to 4.5
- North Carolina 3.5 to 4.5
Win total decreases (Open to Now)
- Texas Tech 11.5 to 10.5
- Penn State 9.5 to 8.5
- Texas A&M 9.5 to 8.5
- LSU 9.5 to 8.5
- Washington 9.5 to 7.5
- Vanderbilt 6.5 to 5.5
- Wake Forest 6.5 to 5.5
- Iowa State 5.5 to 4.5
- Rutgers 5.5 to 4.5
Most bet win totals (tickets)
- Colorado
- Oklahoma
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Ohio State
Most bet OVERs (tickets)
- Oklahoma 7.5
- Colorado 4.5
- Ohio State 9.5
- UCLA 6.5
- Michigan State 4.5
Most bet OVERs (handle)
- Colorado 4.5
- Oklahoma 7.5
- UCLA 6.5
- Louisville 8.5
- California 6.5
Most bet UNDERs (tickets)
- Penn State 8.5
- Cincinnati 5.5
- Colorado 4.5
- Vanderbilt 5.5
- Indiana 10.5
Most bet UNDERs (handle)
- Indiana 10.5
- Colorado 4.5
- Wake Forest 5.5
- Vanderbilt 5.5
- Iowa State
Bettors don’t seem believe in Matt Campbell and Rocco Becht, or maybe they just saw a bloated number. They hit the under HARD and moved the line from 9.5 to 8.5.
Which, hmm…. I don’t know. There’s volatility in Happy Valley with a new coaching staff, new quarterback, and a bunch of new players, a large number of which came over from Iowa State and other non-Big 10, non-SEC schools. So it’s totally valid to ask whether or not this team is going to be any good in 2026.
But I’ve looked at Penn State’s schedule over and over and over again, and it is not a difficult schedule. They play Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo in the non-conference. Marshall and Buffalo are at home and Temple is at the Linc. I just don’t think K.C. Keeler’s boys can match the overall PSU talent level. They’ll battle hard, and probably lose. So PSU is starting 3-0 barring a big upset.
Then they play Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Purdue, Minnesota, and Rutgers at home, while the road games are Michigan, Washington, Maryland, and Northwestern. The Northwestern game is the debut of that new stadium out in Evanston.
If the Nitters lose to Michigan, USC, and Washington, they can get to nine wins by beating Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland. It’s totally doable. All six of those teams are projected to finish in the bottom half of the conference. Penn State only has to play three of the Big 10’s ten teams that are top-40 projected.
Maybe there’s an opportunity here to zig instead of zag. Bettors pushed the number from 9.5 to 8.5. If you look at BetMGM and other Pennsylvania sports betting apps, the price on the over is right around -150. Kalshi lists the over 9 wins at 62%, which is similar to the sportsbook numbers. Everything from 7 wins and below is set at 99% “yes,” so those are considered off the board:
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com