Ad Disclosure
Cubs vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 9
By Matt Modi
Published:
The Phillies head home for a series against the Cubs absolutely reeling, having lost nine of their last 10 games. While it is only June, it feels as though the team hit rock bottom over the weekend as they got swept by the lowly Pirates.
For this article, we will dive into the best home run predictions for the Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET, with Matthew Boyd on the mound for the Cubs and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies.
Cubs vs. Phillies Picks for June 9
Trea Turner to Hit a Home Run (+500 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
While it does admittedly feel gross taking any hitter on the Phillies to do anything positive at the plate, taking a step back shows that Turner makes a lot of sense for a home run tonight.
The season long stats for Turner do not look impressive as he was not hitting for any power at the beginning of the year, but his bat has shown some pop recently, especially against left-handed pitchers (Matthew Boyd is a lefty). On the season, Turner has an ISO rate of .146, which is sub-par. However, over the last 30 days or so, that number has jumped up to .228, which is considered “great” by FanGraphs standards.
Over this same stretch of games Turners power numbers against lefties only goes up. In 40 at-bats against left-handed pitching, Turner has hit three home runs, two doubles and two triples, with an ISO rate of .375. All three of those home runs have been hit since May 21st as well, so the hot streak is even more recent than just the past 30 days.
As for Matthew Boyd, he is not among the worst pitchers in the MLB, but he is nobody to be scared of either, especially with a right handed bat like Turners. Over his last five starts, Boyd has allowed a home run every 20 at-bats or so, which is sub-par. His biggest home run pitch is the 4-seam fastball, as four of the five home runs Boyd has allowed over his last five starts have been hit off his 4-seamer by a RHH, which Turner has hit hard.
Over the last month, Turner has a a 16.67% barrel rate, 63% HardHit rate and a 45% fly-ball rate against 4-seamers from LHP. What makes these numbers even more impressive is the fact that he has only struck out 8% of the time. At +500, Turner is a great bet to go yard tonight, whether you’re a Phils fan using PA sports betting apps or anywhere else.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run (+525 at Bet365)
On the other side of the field, the young Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) is another good option for a home run tonight. Despite only being 23 years old, PCA has been phenomenal this season. He has an excellent ISO rate of .281, along with a great barrel rate of 14.1%.
He does admittedly have a tough matchup against a Cy Young caliber pitcher in Zack Wheeler, but this is a matchup PCA has performed well in in his young career. These two saw each other three times last year, and in those three at-bats PCA hit two doubles off Wheeler. Granted, one of them was a soft double that was only 63.1 mph off the bat in terms of exit velocity, he still hit Wheeler relatively hard last year.
Even if PCA is unable to get one off of Wheeler, he could always take the Phillies bullpen yard, which is allowed a 9.2% barrel rate and 51% HardHit rate against lefties over the last 30 days.
The reason PCA has been such a good home run hitter this year is his ability to put the ball in the air, with an average launch angle of 23.7 degrees and a fly-ball rate of 53.6%. For context, that is the fourth-highest launch angle and the sixth-highest fly-ball rate in the MLB.
One thing not mentioned yet is that this is a good game from a weather + stadium perspective for home runs. The Phillies home stadium, Citizens Bank Park, is a hitter-friendly park in general, and the weather for today specifically is solid for home runs, making it a great combination.
The temperature is mild, but the humidity is high and the barometric pressure is low, both of which help for carry. For context, the weather only adds a +9% home run advantage over the average conditions, per Ballpark Pal.
So, putting everything together, Pete Crow-Armstrong is a solid value home run play at +525.