Phillies

Going Deep on the Phillies’ Road Woes and Rotation Issues

By Bob Wankel

Published: Apr 26th, 2021 · 8:14 AM EDT

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My guess is you don’t really need 1,100+ words this morning on a 12-2 beatdown of the Phillies at Coors Field, a loss so wholly hideous that it made an impressive performance by Bryce Harper a mere footnote.

The loss was just one game of 162, played in April, and it is unlikely to determine the Phillies’ fate this season.

Or is it?

This probably won’t come as a surprise, reader, but the Phillies have problems. At the 21-game point of a major league season, not all problems are the same. Small sample sizes, bad luck, a nagging injury, or an early slump can exacerbate the presence and/or severity of a problem, but Sunday’s mess highlighted deficiencies that sure seem to go beyond a 21-game sample.

From this perspective, two issues stand above the rest:

1. The Phillies don’t (can’t?) win on the road.
2. The back of the starting rotation is a mess.

You’re probably wondering why I didn’t list an unproductive leadoff spot, one mostly occupied by Andrew McCutchen, that has produced a .187 BA and .600 OPS through its first 93 plate appearances. Or a bullpen now sporting a National League-worst 5.32 ERA. Or the lineup’s bizarre inability to get multiple players hot in the same game.

Each problem is noted, but I’m allowing just a bit more time before adding those to the official “uh-oh” list. I’m also trying to stay out of that 1,100-word zone this morning.

As it is, an optimist does not hope that such issues are spurred by a small sample and will soon correct. No, an optimist will hope the organization’s baseball people recognize both the severity and almost certain permanence of these issues.

To be clear, the Phillies aren’t the only team with problems — just ask those who watch contenders such as the Braves, Yankees and Twins on a daily basis. Problems aren’t unique to the Phillies, but if this team wants to get where it hopes to go this October, such problems must be addressed.

Rather than run it back through a forgettable loss and break down a nightmare fourth inning by debating the merits of David Hale vs. Spencer Howard, let’s instead take a step back and look at the slumping Phillies’ problems through a wider lens.

Road Woes

What is the deal with this team on the road? Whether it’s a tough division opponent or cellar-dweller like the Marlins or Rockies, the Phillies haven’t been able to win on the road with any consistency in years.

The Phillies’ startling home/road splits date back to 2018, the first year they were viewed as a postseason contender following what we will generously term as a rebuild.

Year	Home Record	Home win %	Road record	Road win %
2018	49-32	.605	31-50	.383
2019	45-36	.556	36-45	.444
2020	19-13	.594	9-19	.321
2021	8-4	.667	2-7	.222

Noteworthy is that a roster filled with several seasoned veteran players — and now a veteran manager — seems to be so adversely impacted when hitting the road.

Dating back to last season, the Phillies have now lost six consecutive road series. The last time they won a series away from Philadelphia was during a two-game set in Washington last Aug. 25-26. In fact, the last time the Phillies won a three-game set came back on Sept. 17-19 of the 2019 season. That series ended 585 days ago.

This is also a team that has lost nine of 10 games and 16 of its last 20 contests on the road since last September. They have been outscored by a 102-73 margin during that stretch. This season, they sport a -25 run differential in just nine games away from Citizens Bank Park.

Can the road woes be fixed? Logic says yes.

After all, this is the same team that is 27-17 with a +29 run differential at home since the start of last season. They have three good starters and some elite offensive talent. Teams with lesser talent can and have produced better road results, but the multi-year sample size of this baffling trend is real reason for concern. Free agent additions, a managerial switch, a front office shakeup — none of it has yet altered the direction of these harsh splits.

Back Problems

Try as they might to address the issue, the back of the Phillies’ rotation remains a mess. Good-bye, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez. Hello, Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, and…Vince Velasquez?

It was pretty clear early on down in Clearwater the Phillies were going to go with the newly-acquired Moore and Anderson to fill out their rotation, making Velasquez a long man out of the bullpen and a rotation insurance piece.

That policy came into play Friday night after Moore entered MLB’s COVID-19 protocols earlier last week, but one has to wonder if Velasquez, somehow, may be making his way back into the rotation mix based on performance. No, Velasquez hasn’t been particularly good, but Moore and Anderson have been that bad.

After starting Sunday’s loss with three scoreless innings, Anderson came apart in the fourth. The killer was this two-out RBI single by Rockies pitcher Jon Gray:

https://twitter.com/RoxGifsVids/status/1386418785129701380?s=20

Anderson would not recover and surrendered the lead before giving way to David Hale, who promptly yielded a grand slam to Trevor Story. Ballgame.

Despite mostly unimpressive numbers, Anderson has kept the Phillies in games, but he has also thrown just 16 2/3 innings across four starts. After recording just 11 outs against Colorado, it feels safe to suggest the 4/5 combo of Moore and Anderson may not be a winning gamble.

A total of eight starts have been made by the trio of Anderson, Moore and Velasquez. Here’s how it went:

• 7.39 ERA
• 1.77 WHIP
• 31 2/3 IP

That’s 26 earned runs and 56 runners allowed over less than 32 innings in eight starts. That’s also less than four innings per start.

The Phillies can’t duck 81 road games, so they will have to cross their fingers and hope that trend is about to turn. It would be unwise to approach the back end of the starting rotation — one now killing the team’s bullpen — with similar complacency.