Sixers

Joel Embiid Probably Won’t Win MVP, but We’ll Make the Case Anyway

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: May 21st, 2021 · 10:36 AM EDT

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Thursday, Joel Embiid was named a MVP finalist and Ben Simmons got the same nod for Defensive Player of the Year.

That’s a testament to the Sixers’ rebuild, and the way Daryl Morey tweaked the roster this year to play to each guy’s strengths.

Simmons probably will not win the DPOY award, with a lot of the national types favoring Rudy Gobert right now. Gobert anchored the defense for a Utah team that finished with the league’s best record, so it’s hard to see Ben jumping that hurdle, especially when you consider the fact that he had a defensively elite teammate protecting the rim.

Same for Embiid, who seems to be the consensus #2 MVP choice behind Nikola Jokic, who was a force in Denver this season.

The thing about Joel is that games played is really killing him. He played 51 times while Jokic didn’t miss a single game for a team that finished 47-25 and claimed the #3 seed in the Western Conference. If it wasn’t for the injury that cost Joel a chunk of games, he might be neck-and-neck with Jokic, or have an outright case for the award.

Statistically, here’s how their per-36 numbers stack up:

Jokic is the better shooter and throws a ton of assists while quarterbacking that offense. He does not get to the foul line like Embiid, and does not score as many points on a night-in, night-out basis, but it’s all kind of a moot point because these guys are much different on the offensive end. Jokic is a master facilitator and glues it all together in amazing fashion while Embiid is more of a linear/volume scorer and paint presence.

That said, I would explain my MVP take this way:

I think the gap between Jokic and Embiid’s offense is smaller than the gap between Jokic and Embiid’s defense.

It was always stated that Jokic is the better offensive player and Embiid is the better defensive player. That is universally agreed upon. But the question is this – how much better? I really do think Embiid’s offensive game is not that far behind, compared to the way Jokic lags on the other side of the floor.

Maybe national media and the NBA community at large didn’t see it, but Embiid really fine tuned and added to his offensive game this year. We’re talking about a seven-footer shooting Dirk Nowitzski back-foot baseline jumpers. Dream shakes into turnaround fadeaways. Euro steps and delay actions and isolation possessions where he was catching the ball at the three-point line.

Just look at this video clip and try to remind yourself that a massive human being is doing these things:

After this particular game, Embiid said he felt as though he plays the game like a forward, which is crazy, but checks out. He looks like Kevin Durant in this clip, but he’s not a combo forward or a tweener wing. He’s a large center. Scoring baskets like this:

1. euro step over Boban
2. 15-foot pullup jumper
3. SLOB catch-and-shoot three pointer
4. one vs. three post up (and 1)
5. dream shake into turnaround J
6. post up over a 6’7″ combo forward
7. 14-foot baseline jumper
8. delay action into pull-up three pointer
9. Nowitzki back-foot pull up baseline jumper
10. post up into turnaround baseline fadeaway

The other thing about Joel is that he improved on his habits this year. He took a career-low number of three pointers. His turnover numbers matched a previous career low. He committed a career-low personal fouls on the defensive end. There were marginal improvements in categories we had previously deemed “problematic,” as the blue checkmarks say on Twitter.

At ESPN, Zach Lowe has Jokic as MVP and Embiid finishing second, and I think he gets it right when he says this:

You could order the next three finishers any way you like, but they should be 2-4 somehow. Embiid has the best numbers, but he’s played about 600 fewer minutes than Curry and 400 fewer than Antetokounmpo. If we were debating the No. 1 spot, the minutes might tilt my ballot away from Embiid.

But factor in Embiid’s defense and Philly’s perch atop the East, and I’m comfortable slotting him No. 2. He is neck-and-neck with Jokic as the season’s defining figure and most dominant player — the one we will remember in 10 years when we think of this odd pandemic season. I had him as MVP by the teensiest margin before he hurt his knee. I don’t think there was a moment this season when Curry or Antetokounmpo rose to my No. 1 spot, or emerged as consensus leader. Curry and Antetokounmpo is a coin flip. Advanced numbers lean slightly toward Curry. He propped up a team that was helpless without him.

More or less. If Embiid played a full season, and the injury didn’t take place, he may have won this thing. He was an elite presence on the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and is better on the defensive end than Jokic. His offensive game evolved, he was un-guardable at times, and he stepped into his prime in a big way.

Unfortunately, Jokic just put up monster numbers as an intriguing point-center who didn’t miss a single game. He plays for a great team and does some amazing things on the floor, and it’s just hard to see Embiid eclipsing him for the honor. It’s a battle between two seven-foot unicorns who do things on the offensive end that nobody else can do.

Still, Joel’s offense is much more advanced than some people realize. While he and Jokic are completely different players, I’d grade Embiid’s offense as an A- and Jokic’s offense as an A+. I’d grade Embiid’s defense an A and Jokic’s a B-, and if you put all of that together, it says that Embiid is the MVP.

But it’s an arbitrary exercise, and the word “valuable” can be defined in different ways, so we’ll have to resign ourselves to the thought that Jokic is probably gonna claim the award, even though Joel deserves it.