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What are Realistic Expectations for Joel Embiid in the 2025-26 Sixers Season?
By Sean Barnard
Published:
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the biggest question marks in in this looming NBA season. Coming off a nightmare campaign in which they finished with a 24-58 record, the pessimism is evident despite the Eastern Conference being as wide open as it ever will be. While we can be excited about flashes shown by V.J. Edgecombe, or what Jared McCain can do over the length of the full season, the daunting reality the Sixers must face is their outlook for next year is just about entirely dependent on what version of Joel Embiid takes the floor.
Since Embiid debuted in the 2016-17 season, the Sixers have been a good team when he plays and greatly struggled when he has missed time, regardless of who has surrounded him. This has been evident on a micro level over the course of games and a macro level of overall seasons. Across the 452 regular season games that Embiid has been active, the Sixers are 287-146, a 66.3 winning percentage. But Philadelphia has gone just 104-163 without the MVP, posting a 39.0 winning percentage. It has generally been true that when Embiid is healthy, the Sixers rank among the league’s best and when he is not, the team has largely struggled.
Perhaps most concerning part about last year was that this was not the case. The Sixers were just 8-11 across the 19 games that Embiid played and were 7-8 in the 15 that Embiid shared the court with Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. Embiid was unable to effectively serve as defensive anchor and failed to raise the floor of the roster around him in the way that has been commonplace throughout his career. After missing the first nine games of the season due to his knee issues, as well as being suspended for shoving a reporter in the locker room, Embiid played a career-low 19 games before officially being shut down for the season in February after the writing had been on the wall for quite some time.
Even with some promising developments for the youthful core and next generation of this Sixers team, Philadelphia remains married to Joel Embiid. He is under contract for $55.2 million next season before a three-year, $187.6 million extension kicks in with a player option for 2028-29 season.
The 7-footer underwent arthroscopic surgery on his problematic knee this offseason, marking the second surgery in the span of 14 months to address the issue. There have been vaguely positive updates from Daryl Morey and the front office in their belief that Embiid returns to full form. But even Embiid himself is likely not exactly sure of what level his body will be at when game action resumes.
So let’s take a look at what life could look like in the best and worst-case scenarios for this Sixers season and lay out some realistic expectations for the seven-time All-Star as he enters his 10th NBA season at age 31.
Worst-Case Scenario
The track record for big men with knee or foot issues over the age of 30 is not great.
Shaquille O’Neal underwent surgery on torn cartilage that caused hm to miss 4-6 weeks in the 2006-07 season. He was in his 15th season at age 34 at the time, but was limited to just 13.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game following the issue and missed 102 games over the next four years before hanging it up. O’Neal was just one season removed from coming in 12th in MVP voting and earning his 14th All-Star appearance.
Yao Ming is another potential all-time great who had his career cut short due to injuries. He missed 180 games across the eight seasons in his NBA career, including playing just five total games in his final two seasons. It’s worth noting that foot issues were the larger cause of his problems.
Pete Maravich is another example of a player who was at his peak, averaging 31.1 points and coming in third in MVP voting in 1976-77. He suffered tendinitis and picked up an infection in his knee (somehow an injury Embiid has not had) the following year and suffered a torn lateral ligament later in the season. Pistol Pete made one final All-Star game the following season at age 31, but played just 43 total games following this before hanging it up. Modern medicine has come a long way since this point, but Embiid also had quite a few injury red flags well before these latest meniscus issues.
The organization cannot come right out and say it, but the Sixers are prepared for this unfortunate reality if it does come true. Maxey earned his first All-Star appearance in 2023-24 and still took some strides forward last year despite the mess the season was. He will be turning 25 and is still coming into his athletic prime. McCain looked like the runaway Rookie of the Year before he suffered his own meniscus tear. Philadelphia selected V.J. Edgecombe with the third overall pick and he has a chance to play his way into a foundational piece of the future. Morey flipped 29-year-old Caleb Martin for 25-year-old Quentin Grimes at the trade deadline and all signs point toward the restricted free agent returning. Morey also has selected a center in the second round of the draft in back-to-back years.
Plan A has to be Joel Embiid returning to full form due to how much is invested in the Sixers star. But the youth movement is happening right in front of us and there is a Plan B in place.
Best-Case Scenario
We are less than two years removed from Joel Embiid being on track to win his second consecutive MVP and playing like a consensus top-three player in basketball. He was averaging 34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game across the 2023-24 season while shooting a ridiculous 52.9% from the field and 38.8% from beyond the three-point arc. Embiid suiting up for just 39 games, of which the Sixers went 31-8, prevents him from being remembered in the history books. But he was on pace to break Wilt Chamberlain’s record for most points per minute over a season at 1.034. The Sixers star still holds the NBA’s all-time career record for points per minute at 0.87.
The Olympics were a less-convincing experience for what Embiid looked like. He missed two full months of the 2023-24 NBA season after Jonathan Kuminga fell on his knee, which led to the first meniscus surgery. Embiid returned for five regular season games and then averaged 33.0 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game against the Knicks before the Sixers were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The decision for the big man to even participate in the Olympics was hotly debated. For most of the tournament, he lumbered around the court with a bulky knee brace. He did show up when it mattered most, playing his best basketball in the matchup with Nikola Jokic and Serbia during crunch time of the semifinal. While the larger sample size wasn’t great, the United States likely does not take gold without Embiid swinging the game late:
The Indiana Pacers have made many question this, but it generally has been accepted that you must have a clear-cut top-10 player in the NBA to be a legitimate contender. Embiid is far from a safe bet, but is still the Sixers’ best pathway to having a player of this caliber. He has been this comfortably since entering his NBA prime and it was not as long ago as it may be feel that he still was playing at this elite level.
It was clear to anyone who watched Embiid last year that he was not physically right. Beyond his output of just 23.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists and a career-worst 44.4% field goal percentage, the 7-footer’s movement was never up to his standard. His average shot distance came in at 13.5 last year which was more than a foot longer than his previous career high of 12.3 back in 2019-20. Embiid’s ability to shoot from the perimeter has been a defining characteristic of his game, but his disinterest in attacking the basket and getting up and down the floor were still telling.
Embiid made several veiled comments while he was still playing about how he likely needed surgery to get back to the best version of himself. Updates surrounding his procedure and the big man’s recovery progress have been vague, at best. But should we at least view it as a positive that something was done in an effort to make his health status better? Is Embiid’s decline just a race against time or could there be an issue internally that has now been fixed?
Philadelphia has no choice but to hope this is the case. The Sixers have taken strides in building a pathway to winning outside of being reliant on Embiid’s heroic individual efforts, but this team is still built around him being the star.
Realistic Expectations
Neither extreme is the most likely outcome based on what we have seen. There have been enough flashes of Embiid in recent history to believe that his existence as a high level basketball player is not completely over. But it feels a lofty goal for him to ever play himself into the MVP race, be available for 70+ games, or pour in 30+ points on an every game basis again. Embiid can absolutely still impact winning at a high level, but both he and the rest of the roster must be ready to accept this.
There have been plenty of conversations surrounding the supporting cast for Embiid throughout the years. Most of these concerns have been valid, but there also has to be some give and take in Embiid adjusting through his style of play. Throughout his career he is posting a 35.2% usage percentage and has tallied as high as 39.6% over the course of a season. This career usage rate ranks 81st in NBA history and Embiid ranked second in the league last year, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo, despite being clearly hampered.
If Embiid can no longer put forth super human stat lines, he must adjust his play. Maxey, McCain, Paul George (hopefully), Quentin Grimes, and VJ Edgecombe are perfectly capable of scaling up their offensive roles and should be asked to do so. The stylistic changes when Embiid is on and off the floor make life difficult for the supporting cast, who see their expectations shift in a major way. If he can take a step back and not need to serve as an offensive hub and score-first option on an every-play basis, it could be the best pathway to keeping Embiid healthy and leading to the Sixers highest quality of basketball. But Embiid himself must be willing to accept this in addition to the team.
This is all operating under the assumption that Embiid is even on the floor. Morey has been notably non-committal when asked about the big man’s status but he does not have much of a choice given how last season went. For the time being, there are more questions than answers and how he looks in the early stages of the season likely will be a key indicator of what plan of championship pursuit the Sixers will truly be taking. Morey has continually echoed that if this Sixers team is going to win a championship it is going to be with Embiid on the roster and playing at a high level. But is this the injury recovery process we can finally trust?
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.