But it doesn’t look good: We all know this weekend’s Eagles game is a must-win, because losing would put a nail in the coffin of their season and also be super embarrassing. But the Dallas/Indianapolis matchup is just as important (maybe more so) in determining the Eagles’ immediate fate. FiveThirtyEight, as always, has done the math on this.
If the Eagles win, Dallas’ chances to make the playoffs drop only down to 77.8%, while the Eagles’ chances leap up to 48.9% — actually not too shabby. But the biggest break the Eagles could get (obviously) would be for Dallas to lose to the Colts. With a Dallas loss, the Eagles’ playoff chances go from 39.5% to 57.8%. With a Cowboys win, they drop to 23.5%. And if Dallas beats the Colts or the Eagles lose to the Redskins, the Cowboys’ playoff chances hop up to an almost identical percentage in the 93% range.
And finally, in totally (hopefully) unrealistic odds, if the Redskins beat the Eagles, the Birds’ playoff chances dip down to 7.8%, which might as well be a five-win season for some.