H/T to reader Will1 Comment
Over at FiveThirtyEight, when they aren’t previewing the NBA, they’re continuing to breakdown the NFL. One of the ways they’ve chosen to do that this year is by adopting “Elo Ratings” — more commonly used in chess and modified for Association Football — to the NFL, and using those ratings to predict wins, losses, and playoff odds. The rating takes into account past success, win margins, history, etc. (more is explained over here if you want to read into it).
In weeks one through four, the ratings had the Eagles favored to win the division. But in Week 5, the birds and Cowboys switched spots, though the Eagles have never dipped below a 36% chance to win the division or a 51% chance to make the playoffs since then. Also over that time, the Eagles raised their projected wins from 9.6 to 10.6 (now back down at 10.1), while the Cowboys, who peaked at 12.0, are now just above the Eagles at 10.8.
About those playoff odds, Neil Paine at FiveThirtyEight said:
At any rate, Dallas’s upset loss had real implications for the NFC East derby. Despite the Eagles’ loss, the Cowboys’ odds of winning the division dropped from 66 percent to 53 percent. Philadelphia’s chances jumped from 33 percent to 42 percent. Meanwhile, both teams lost ground in the wild card race — Dallas’s odds fell by 2 percentage points, and the Eagles’ chances dropped by 14 percentage points, more than any other team in the league. Much of that lost wild-card probability was soaked up by the NFC West, where Arizona, Seattle and San Francisco’s chances increased by a combined 22 percentage points.
If both teams continue on this path, it could set up a Thanksgiving Day showdown for the ages. With that in mind, a part of me would love to see a 9-2 Eagles team face off against a 9-2 Cowboys team, but that’s the thinking part. The feeling part of me wants to see Dallas at 6-5 by then.10 Comments
Good news: Jason Kelce probably comes back this week and Evan Mathis probably next week.
Better news: David Molk can find out how great the bench is.
Bad news: Todd Herremans has a torn biceps muscle, and the rest of his season is in serious jeopardy.
Todd Herremans tore the biceps muscle in his left arm, according to NFL sources, but the right guard will attempt to play Sunday even though the injury is typically season-ending.
This is bad. No way to sugarcoat it. As we’ve seen, as the Eagles’ offensive line goes, so goes the Eagles. What was a strength last season – the offensive line opened up the running game, which, in turn, opened up the passing game – has been a weakness this season. Kelce and Mathis are the next two most important pieces besides Jason Peters, so their returns will still be a net improvement should Herremans eventually require season-ending surgery. But it’s looking like the Eagles won’t have a full, healthy offensive line at any point this season.
Herremans plays right guard, which is to say, in front of Foles, so losing him wouldn’t be quite as hurtful as losing someone like Mathis, who plays on the left and in Foles’ blind spot. Maybe front-side pressure will prove not to be as terrifying to Captain Happy Feet. Or maybe Herremans can play through the injury for the rest of the season the way, as McLane noted, Terrell Suggs did en route to the Ravens’ Super Bowl championship in 2012. But now I’m just trying to rationalize things. This sucks.4 Comments
Sproles back, Kendricks back, Kelce/Mathis next: According to Jeff McLane of the Inquirer, Darren Sproles said he’d be ready to play this Sunday. That doesn’t necessarily mean he will — that decision doesn’t come from Sproles but from, as we all know, the team owner — but it’s a good sign that Sproles feels well enough on at practice on Tuesday to basically guarantee he’ll play against the Texans on Sunday. Since joining the Eagles — a situation in which some players would just come in, say hi to their friends they ain’t seen in awhile, try and stay out of everybody’s way — Sproles has become a main cog in the offensive machine. He’s a special dude.0 Comments
But once again, Eagles fans are “out of control.”
At last week’s Giants/Cowboys game at Jerry Jones’ billion-dollar game room, a Cowboys fan was knocked to the ground and had his jaw broken for seemingly no reason at all. Oscar Rangel was chanting “Let’s Go Cowboys” on the concourse of their home stadium when someone hit him from the side and broke his jaw, and knocked a GoPro camera off of his hat (why wear that?). Rangel thinks it was a Giants fan who didn’t care for his cheering, but the short clip of footage after the jump doesn’t really show who was responsible. Either way, Oscar is eating out of a straw, unable to work for the next six weeks, and faces medical bills and several trips to the oral surgeon. But then again, we booed Santa Claus. So that’s basically the same thing.
h/t @JHU_Philly12 Comments
The Cowboys lost last night, dropping them to 6-2 and into a loss-column tie with the Eagles. Their run atop the division lasted, precisely, 28 hours.
The Birds owe a big thanks to DeSean Jaccson, who caught six passes for 136 yards and reminded everyone that a GREAT TEAM WIN is always best encapsulated with a highlight video of yourself. Continue reading18 Comments
A day after calling for the ball and then fumbling it in the red zone (don’t do that!), Josh Huff responded to a couple of knuckleheads giving him the business on Twitter. You can read a sampling of the exchange after the jump. I’m of the opinion that both sides are in the wrong here. If you’re a grown man harassing a rookie football player on Twitter, you need to reevaluate life. If you’re an NFL player, you need to not say you don’t care about the fans.
One loss and this town starts eating itself. Chaos, I tell you.21 Comments
The NY papers would have you believe that the lowest of the low reside only in Philadelphia, an argument countered simply with the phrase: Jets fans.
You can see the Jets fan take a swing — and he connects right to the head of the Bills fan … and the guy immediately is out cold.
According to witnesses, the Jets fan left the scene before security arrived.
One witness tells TMZ Sports, “The Bills fan had been shooting his mouth off before the fight and the Jets fans took exception.”
You can see the Bills fan being tended to by other fans — including another man in a Jets jersey.
We spoke to the NJ State Police who tell us … the Jets fan was apprehended as he fled the scene and was arrested and charged with simple assault.
Weirdly, this was the second most offensive thing that happened at MetLife stadium yesterday. Jets quarterbacks – Geno Smith (3 int) and Michael Vick (2 fumbles, 1 int) – had six turnovers in a 43-23 loss.
Video after the jump.5 Comments