Cole-hamels-si2

Photo Source: Sports Illustrated

Yes and no.  Yes, in that after going through the league for a few years, there is always some concern that hitters have adjusted to him and he isn't capable of readjusting.

No, in that it's a long season and this team is probably good enough to win the NL East even if Hamels continues muddling through. Last season they won the division fairly easily and their starting pitching was in disarray most of the season with injuries and inconsistency until they acquired Cliff Lee. For a team as good as the Phillies, they just need Hamels to be pitching well when the post-season rolls around so he can match up with other teams' Game 2 starters in the playoffs.

Paul Hagen suggests that his early struggles may be due to his cutter. I think it's due to his ordinary velocity (his fastball typically maxes out at 90-92 MPH), combined with the fact he pitches to contact. Therefore, he often needs to have near-flawless command to be successful. During last season and the 2 games so far this season, hitters have been able to foul off his "out" pitch much more frequently than in the past. And we've seen that this usually results in him running up high pitch counts early in games because of more patient hitters and an increase in the number of foul balls.

That makes it difficult for him to ever last beyond the 6th inning. So far this season he's averaged 5.1 IP in 2 starts. Last season he averaged 6.0 IP per start. Back in 2008 he averaged 7.0 IP per start. And now with Moyer and Happ usually not going past the 6th inning, and Kendrick getting pounded early, the cumulative effect is that the middle and long relievers are getting overextended and this will eventually make them less effective the more they are exposed. I still hold out hope that Hamels can regain his 2008 form and have a long successful career. Otherwise, we may end up comparing him to Steve Avery instead of Steve Carlton.