STORMCAST 2015: EVERYONE WAS WRONG, and the Ones Who Were Less Wrong Are Gloating about It

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What you are about to see here are LIES. THESE ARE LIES, DAMMIT! No one had it right.

 

But someone had to be close, right?

Wrong.

 

Hurricane?

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No.

 

Kate?

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Oh Kate…

 

Kathy?

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Annnnnd that’s why they’re in third place.

 

The EURO?

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Nein.

 

The NAM?

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Haha.

 

Cecily. I bet Cecily nailed it.

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Who cares, she’s a warrior.

 

Guy I never heard of?

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Meh.

 

The National Weather Service?

Fuck no!

 

Sheena?

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I actually have no idea– she appears to be forecasting tight-fitting black dress,” so I don’t know what that means. Why does it feel so right when she’s so wrong?

 

Gary?

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🙁

 

THEN WHO?

No one.

 

But someone had to be closest, right?

Not really.

 

Tallest midget?

All short.

 

I NEED NAMES!

John Bolaris and Adam Joseph.

They pretty consistently took the under on all the outrageous forecasts.

I’d call out J-Bo’s updates from yesterday, but he has a 1998 thing going on with his site, WeatherSavior.com, where he just keeps updating the same page. You’d think that would be all too convenient for a meteorologist who wants to Chad Ford his forecasts, but despite his use of ALL CAPS and GIANT, ALLITERATIVE-VOWLED LOCUTIONS TO SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF US, he consistently forecasted the low end of the range– basically from 4 to 10 inches in most parts of the area. When he switched to a solid 4 last night, it was all but the death knell for the storm in Philly.

Adam Joseph, though still wrong, stuck to his guns on the lower end. Here’s what he wrote on Facebook yesterday morning:

Between this storm, Jacob, and a nasty cold this dad is exhausted and it is only 7am! I just looked at all the overnight model information and the predawn extra model run. Every single model has lowered the amount of precipitation available from this storm for ALL locations in our area. In fact the Almighty Euro, most weather peeps rely on, has cut the numbers in half! Example Philly during the morning run Sunday had 1.41″ of potential liquid, last night it dropped to .82″

I am happy with what I am seeing and continue to stress what I have from the very beginning….this IS A NYC TO BOSTON BLIZZARD, NOT a crippling storm for Philly. I know yesterday many people on my facebook bashed me and asked why I was not much higher like all other outlets. From what I saw on my facebook, I guess others are promising 1-2 feet for Philly. Again, I never saw this and especially don’t with the latest info, so I stand strong with my discussion and reason from my first facebook post 23 hours ago (you can see it down further on my facebook wall).This storm still has a big bust potential for part of our area, especially the farther west you live.

drops mic, tells Cecily he’s not a moron, comforts sick baby

 

So they should pound their chests, yes?

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No one wants gloating. Because unless you forecasted “Yeah, like, maybe 3-inch drifts in Horsham– that should about be the extent of it,” then you were wrong.

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Yeah, he boldly stuck with  6-10 in that same Facebook post:

I have been explaining to you models have been anywhere from 1″-3″ for Philly to as high as 16″-20″….as of right now I would go with:

Philly area 6-10″
West of Philly 3-6″
East of Philly (esp near coast, trenton, and near NYC) 8″-14″ with some blowing snow

That’s not right. It’s just less wrong.

J-Bo isn’t being much better about it:

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And neither is Ginger Zee:

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The graphic she referenced had New York City in the 16-24 range:

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You know, 1 inch off… or 15.

 

What about the guys who predicted IMMINENT SNOW DEATH?

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In a meteorological FMK, I’d marry Gary. Every time.

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love the use of bust as a verb.

EPAWAWeather guy?

We blew the call, and everyone blew it – and amending or lowering your original call is not nailing it either. No one got this right, plain and simple. It reminds us of the March 5-7th, 2001 epic fail “blizzard” that never was – very eerily similar. Everything looked great through early this evening, and then everything took an abrupt turn for the worse. So although we put countless hours of time and effort into this one, we failed. Yes we got and will get snow, but nowhere close to the epic amounts that up until today looked to be spot on. So this is our “man-up” post. It wasn’t hyped, it wasn’t sensationalized. It was the right call from a physics and forecasting standpoint, but in the end, mother nature humbled us. It is our first large scale blown call by our staff of meteorologists for our coverage area this year, and this one stings a lot. And will continue to sting until the next one we’re sure.

And perhaps the best apology – from someone who was pretty conservative in his estimates – comes from the PhillyWX guy:

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We derped. Truer words have never been written.

 

So we all learned our lesson?

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Awww hell no!

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24 Comments

  • Your Mother (nature) January 27, 2015 at 11:52 am

    Teeee heeee HA ha ha ha!! You try to predict what a bipolar wench will do next and you’ll get burned more often than not. Some of you married and non single men may know what I mean. That snowflake is soooo pretty… Um, don’t mess with mother nature I’ll cut you deep. Ask John Bolaris, He thought he knew me but I just tricked him into thinking I was predictable. He was play-dough in my hands and is now worth just about that, a play-dough set. Is that a cloud in the shape of an angel? I love angels, don’t you? Gotta run, I have a school I need to run a tornado through.

    Reply
    • Maxie January 27, 2015 at 5:29 pm

      So very mean of you Mother Nature, you know, since his fiancee, now his ex, just broke his heart. You could have thrown him an extra foot of snow at least so he could save face!

      Reply
  • Hank Scorpio January 27, 2015 at 11:58 am

    One of my favorite posts of all time! Entertaining, informative & boobs… i don’t think you missed anything. Bravo Kyle, weather forecast reviewer.

    Reply
  • JP January 27, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    Predicting the track and impact of storms with 100% accuracy, hell even 50% accuracy, is next to impossible. Even with the fanciest data modeling, the belief that meteorologists predictions will come to fruition as stated is crazy. Some storms will be more intense, some will be weaker. Humans want to believe that we are in control….we’re not. Expecting meteorologists to be on the money 100% of the time is as crazy as someone expecting a hitter to bat 1.000 for a season.

    It’s not like this storm was a total bust either. New England is getting pummeled. Philadelphia was on the south western edge of the storm.

    Reply
    • The One January 27, 2015 at 12:10 pm

      Get out of here [insert local tv meteorologists name]!

      Reply
  • Jaws Here January 27, 2015 at 12:22 pm

    May of been your best post of all time… Don’t get to excited since you are a sports blog and this had not an inkling about sports whatsoever.

    Either way well done sir.

    Reply
    • real January 27, 2015 at 1:10 pm

      gammar clearly is not of youre best friend

      Reply
      • Pot-kettle January 27, 2015 at 1:17 pm

        ^^ “your”

        Reply
        • real January 27, 2015 at 4:39 pm

          thatsthejoke.jpg

          //whoosh

          Reply
      • Pot-kettle January 27, 2015 at 1:18 pm

        “Grammar”

        Reply
  • Richard Crankshaft January 27, 2015 at 1:48 pm

    Common sense told you this was not going to be a big storm for Philadelphia. Big storms for Philly start with a low pressure system coming up from the SW or up the coast from North Carolina/VA. This thing developed right over us. It never had a chance here. If you dont see a huge blob of mositure coming up from the south its not going to snow heavily here.

    The thing that troubled me was hearing the local mets tell me last night at 11 PM that we could still see 4″-8″… And idiot could look at the national radar and see Philadelphia wasnt going to get any snow based on the track of the radar /storm. These people are morons. Can Cecily even read basic radar patterns and their trajectory?

    Reply
  • Sheena Parveen's Icy Pussy January 27, 2015 at 1:53 pm

    Anyone want my tampon?

    Reply
  • Realist January 27, 2015 at 2:02 pm

    Well done, captain hindsight. Once again from the comfort of his own home, Kyle Laskowski criticizes others who actually try to come up with some news for people.

    Reply
  • Realist January 27, 2015 at 2:04 pm

    Oh also, Kyle, maybe you can answer this for me because Jimbo won’t: is his Twitter handle @JimisLame because he’s actually lame or is it ironic because he is so damn cool??? Come on, Kyle. The people want to know!!

    Reply
  • Philly Frank January 27, 2015 at 2:32 pm

    So basically – they just “Howard Eskin’d” this blizzard?

    Reply
  • Kid in the Back January 27, 2015 at 2:49 pm

    these weather people are basically terrorists minus the killing. they grip societies with fear. shut down mas transit. cost the government millions in resources. fucking garbage. they should all be fired. wish i could show up at my job and royally fuck up with no recourse.

    Reply
    • Ruben Amaro January 27, 2015 at 5:48 pm

      ” wish i could show up at my job and royally fuck up with no recourse.”

      Haha yeah man. Trust me, it’s awesome.

      Reply
      • Matt from Morton January 27, 2015 at 10:13 pm

        ^Shut it down everyone, this wins the internet today^

        Reply
    • Go back to Madrid January 28, 2015 at 7:03 pm

      Hey dipshit, TRYING to come up with news isn’t noble. It’s bullshit. News happens. When you TRY to come up with news you get the exact same bullshit that just happened with this storm. More hot flying bullshit than snowflakes.

      Keep your made up news in your own damn head, psycho.

      Reply
      • Go back to Madrid January 28, 2015 at 7:04 pm

        Shit, that was at Realist.

        Now for the weatherman terrorist analogy. That shit is apt.

        Reply
  • NewtownMike January 27, 2015 at 2:56 pm

    To be fair weather channel app had Monday and Tuesday snow totals at 2-6 inches combined for both systems…. They nailed it somehow someway

    Reply
  • Loke January 27, 2015 at 2:59 pm

    Weather underground was right on for my local forecast. I only watch weather in tv as a precursor to jerking off. Have a good night.

    Reply
  • Gods gift January 27, 2015 at 8:17 pm

    Your really unprofessional. I hope all of your ties dump you. 13 million views to read shit material.

    Reply
  • Pretty Faced but Dopey Adam Joseph January 28, 2015 at 2:54 pm

    I’m home with my kid but I was right all along! I knew it! Sure I had absolutely no clue why the models were lowering their totals and the storm actually set up wonderfully for me to be wrong, but the storm slowed and I got bailed out by some weather in western PA so I’m a genius after all! By the way, did I mention I have a kid? No? I have a kid.

    Reply
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