What you are about to see here are LIES. THESE ARE LIES, DAMMIT! No one had it right.
But someone had to be close, right?
Annnnnd that’s why they’re in third place.
Cecily. I bet Cecily nailed it.
Who cares, she’s a warrior.
Guy I never heard of?
The National Weather Service?
I actually have no idea– she appears to be forecasting “tight-fitting black dress,” so I don’t know what that means. Why does it feel so right when she’s so wrong?
But someone had to be closest, right?
I NEED NAMES!
John Bolaris and Adam Joseph.
They pretty consistently took the under on all the outrageous forecasts.
I’d call out J-Bo’s updates from yesterday, but he has a 1998 thing going on with his site, WeatherSavior.com, where he just keeps updating the same page. You’d think that would be all too convenient for a meteorologist who wants to Chad Ford his forecasts, but despite his use of ALL CAPS and GIANT, ALLITERATIVE-VOWLED LOCUTIONS TO SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF US, he consistently forecasted the low end of the range– basically from 4 to 10 inches in most parts of the area. When he switched to a solid 4 last night, it was all but the death knell for the storm in Philly.
Adam Joseph, though still wrong, stuck to his guns on the lower end. Here’s what he wrote on Facebook yesterday morning:
Between this storm, Jacob, and a nasty cold this dad is exhausted and it is only 7am! I just looked at all the overnight model information and the predawn extra model run. Every single model has lowered the amount of precipitation available from this storm for ALL locations in our area. In fact the Almighty Euro, most weather peeps rely on, has cut the numbers in half! Example Philly during the morning run Sunday had 1.41″ of potential liquid, last night it dropped to .82″
I am happy with what I am seeing and continue to stress what I have from the very beginning….this IS A NYC TO BOSTON BLIZZARD, NOT a crippling storm for Philly. I know yesterday many people on my facebook bashed me and asked why I was not much higher like all other outlets. From what I saw on my facebook, I guess others are promising 1-2 feet for Philly. Again, I never saw this and especially don’t with the latest info, so I stand strong with my discussion and reason from my first facebook post 23 hours ago (you can see it down further on my facebook wall).This storm still has a big bust potential for part of our area, especially the farther west you live.
– drops mic, tells Cecily he’s not a moron, comforts sick baby –
So they should pound their chests, yes?
No one wants gloating. Because unless you forecasted “Yeah, like, maybe 3-inch drifts in Horsham– that should about be the extent of it,” then you were wrong.
Yeah, he boldly stuck with 6-10 in that same Facebook post:
I have been explaining to you models have been anywhere from 1″-3″ for Philly to as high as 16″-20″….as of right now I would go with:
Philly area 6-10″
West of Philly 3-6″
East of Philly (esp near coast, trenton, and near NYC) 8″-14″ with some blowing snow
That’s not right. It’s just less wrong.
J-Bo isn’t being much better about it:
And neither is Ginger Zee:
The graphic she referenced had New York City in the 16-24 range:
You know, 1 inch off… or 15.
What about the guys who predicted IMMINENT SNOW DEATH?
In a meteorological FMK, I’d marry Gary. Every time.
I love the use of bust as a verb.
We blew the call, and everyone blew it – and amending or lowering your original call is not nailing it either. No one got this right, plain and simple. It reminds us of the March 5-7th, 2001 epic fail “blizzard” that never was – very eerily similar. Everything looked great through early this evening, and then everything took an abrupt turn for the worse. So although we put countless hours of time and effort into this one, we failed. Yes we got and will get snow, but nowhere close to the epic amounts that up until today looked to be spot on. So this is our “man-up” post. It wasn’t hyped, it wasn’t sensationalized. It was the right call from a physics and forecasting standpoint, but in the end, mother nature humbled us. It is our first large scale blown call by our staff of meteorologists for our coverage area this year, and this one stings a lot. And will continue to sting until the next one we’re sure.
And perhaps the best apology – from someone who was pretty conservative in his estimates – comes from the PhillyWX guy:
We derped. Truer words have never been written.
So we all learned our lesson?
Awww hell no!