STORMCAST 2015: Snow Amounts for Philly Range from, like, 4 to 20 Inches Because No One Has a Goddamn Clue

Most updated map from National Weather Service
Most updated map from National Weather Service

Alright so here’s the situation in the CB weather center: It’s gonna fucking snow. How much? No one knows.

 

Why doesn’t anyone know?

Forecasters (this is everyone from the local TV people to hardcore meteorologists in our STORM Twitter list) have been noting the disagreements between computer models. Most of the estimates you’ve been seeing are some combination or an average of all these models. As I mentioned in the Roundup, the models differ on when the storm takes shape and intensifies– if it’s earlier and farther to the West, off the coast of North Carolina, then Philly gets the higher amounts… if it’s later, and off the coast of New Jersey when it fully forms, then we get more of the back end of it and less snow.

 

Why are the models so far apart?

Most meteorologists agree that the EURO is more accurate, and all along that’s been forecasting the higher snow amounts. All models, however, have trended downward over the last 18 hours or so. But that doesn’t mean we still won’t get hit hard. Some experts still predict the higher end of the totals.

 

Who predicts that?

Steven DiMartino of NYNJPAWeather.com and whoever writes for EPAWAWeather.com.

DiMartino has all along been sticking with the higher amounts for our area, noting that the storm has taken shape relatively earlier and farther to the west than predicted by most models, which means the higher forecast for our area. He writes: “The surface low is CLEARLY further west than the majority of models had suggested.”

The guy from EPAWAWeather.com says that the storm has taken a “negative tilt” (basically the upper atmosphere tilting the storm back toward the west) earlier than expected, which means the system will remain closer to the coast and produce higher accumulation in our area. He writes on Facebook:

The latest analysis at the surface shows the low pressure is stronger and more WSW than the model guidance at 12z (this late morning/early afternoon) suggested. This matches up with our observations of the trough taking a “negative tilt” earlier. This means the trough axis is from SE to NW, this allows air to diverge over the low pressure system aloft. Which then allows air to rise faster and speed up the development of the low. The next thing we will be watching for is when this trough closes off and allows the low to slow down and stay closer to the coast. That should occur later this evening. Current forecast stands as called, no reason to change it right now.

 

But what about the models– aren’t they reliable?

Yes. And they may be right. But they’re only computer models, and they don’t take into account expertise and observation (it’s like the SABR-scout battle in baseball). DiMartino and EPAWAWeather.com are basically saying that the models aren’t yet accounting for the atmospheric conditions that will force the low to form earlier and remain closer to the coast. The latter has even gone after Adam Joseph over this… just hours after apologizing to Joseph and Cecily Tynan because his followers were harassing them:

Voila_Capture 2015-01-26_03-33-46_PMVoila_Capture 2015-01-26_03-33-55_PM

In other words: What’s actually happening isn’t reflected in the models yet. But the most recent NAM is skewing higher:

Voila_Capture 2015-01-26_04-02-02_PM

 

So who’s predicting less?

Basically all the TV people, PhillyWx.com, and John Bolaris— they’re sticking with some variation of this (which is a still A LOT of snow):

Voila_Capture 2015-01-26_03-36-29_PM

 

Who’s right?

Fuck if I know. The people who have been saying “more, more, more” have stuck to their guns all along. The models, which are typically calling for less, haven’t been as consistent in their projections. Philadelphia is right on the line and a shift of just a couple hundred miles could drastically impact snow amounts.

 

Still gonna be a big storm?

Uh, yeah. Meteorologist Ryan Maue has a massive weather erection right now– perhaps he calls it a storm surge:

Voila_Capture 2015-01-26_04-07-09_PM Voila_Capture 2015-01-26_04-07-02_PM

HOT.

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36 Responses

  1. Honestly, this is probably the best summary of all this shit I’ve read. Especially since no one seems to agree on how much we’re going to get, which is not helpful at all.

    1. it is actually rather ironic that I went to Facebook to find out the weather from Crossing broad and managed to do exactly just that. Thanks Kyle

    2. Kyle’s best work is usually non-sports related when you think about it. He is very good at aggregating news and cohesively getting it out there. His work on this storm is strong, as was his live work during the hunt for the Boston marathon bomber.

      1. Honestly, Kyle does decent summaries and dissertations on a lot of of shit – is this a great sports blog? Not really. Is it turning into a bastard child of TMZ, Cliffs Notes, and Jim’s balls? Probably.

        and BTW, these meteorologists get paid to make a lot of fucking guesses. All that did for me in college was kill my GPA.

  2. Wow. If Kyle put half the effort into covering sports as he does snow…

    …this blog would still suck.

  3. I promise the same thing to most of my girl friends and prison trannies….4 to 20 inches. Depends on how much drinking and cocaine binging me an Tolly have been doing

  4. I assume you are gonna do a rundown on Weds of who got it right and who f’d it up?

  5. Who’s the asshole who put Sheena Parveen in black? This is probably NBC10’s biggest day of the year and their centerfold can only be fully appreciated on an high end TV.

  6. Anyone who disagrees with me can get buried in snow drift.

    1. Kate Bilo is hot… she has been hot since her days at Accuweather. She’s also a PSU grad. Hottest.

  7. Kyle, maybe you could write a post about Avalon Brian, kind of curious what this guy is all about. Does he only hang out in Avalon? Does he visit other shore towns? What about during the winter? Does he introduce himself as AB to people? Has he had relations with a lady in the past decade?
    Avalon Brian actually has a twitter account under the name, wait for it……Avalon Brian

    1. Avalon Brian got onto the air so much because he was willing to give Duh Cuz a rusty trombone for each time he called. Cuz also enjoyed shitting on ol AB’s face.

  8. This looks like epic bust for Philly. NOAA and accuweather had 14″-24″ yesterday for Philadelphia. This could very well be a complete miss based on radar 8:26 PM.

    1. True they’ve just downgraded the amount of snow expected for Philadelphia to 4 – 8 inches,and once again the meteorologists in this town got it wrong.

      But hey at least the local grocers cleaned up,I mean seriously people how much bread eggs and milk can a person consume.

      1. Seems like meteorology is in bad shape. Everything revolves around the computer models. Not just the talking heads like Bolaris and Cecily but Even the supposed experts at AccuWeather and Weather Channel etc all they talk about are these fucking Computer Models which are usually wrong.

        Extrapolate your own wind patterns and high and low pressure systems. Its such a pathetic industry now. The Euro said this . The GFs data says. Fuck all you lazy pathetic jit bag meteorologist.

  9. Currently in the Spring Garden section at 9:24pm and no signs of this impending record setting snowstorm.

    So far this storm has been all hype and no substance.

  10. So if this turns out to be a bust, does this surpass and finally get Bolaris off the hook for the “storm of the century” gaffe.

    Oh and Caitlin Roth can use my face as her personal seat anytime. Still have no idea how she gets no love on here.

    1. She get some work done, you think? Nose seems different. Great body on her, looks like a runner.

  11. Sheena just said “as the storm moves inland we’ll get a better idea of accumulation” ….. Hmmm no f’in shit….. Btw as I wake up and look out my window I’ll get a better idea of how much I have to shovel, stay tuned for this very useless update

  12. I like how the weather dude Kyle said was amazing was so wrong. What a douchebag. Kyle. Not the weather guy.

    Sheena and her fat tits can go screw. Cecely is still hotter than you, tubby.

  13. Why is it so hard for you global warming deniers to understand that warm causes cold. Climate Scientist or “Weathermen” as I like to call them have been accurately predicting weather for decades now. As you wake up this morning to “snowpocalypse” thank a weatherman for accurately predicting it.

    1. Why is it so difficult for you leftist sheep to understand that global warming has been occurring since the dawn of time? BEFORE the advent of the SUV. Why can’t you see this man-made global warming political ideology is a ruse and a hoax. It’s all about power and control. The EPA and other Obama government agencies issued over 23,000 regulations since his inauguration. Why? To regulate industries and businesses that can affect your everyday life. CO2 emissions? and now methane (cow farts)? Let’s be real. Free market capitalism is their target. Big government control is their answer. It is a known fact that each and every one of us is in violation of some law, every day. Ignorance of the law is no excuse. If someone wants to harass you or take you to court over some obscure EPA violation of which you are totally unaware, it can happen. Keep drinking the Kool Aid you leftist sheep.

      1. Little too steep. If you are going to troll, it needs a bit more finesse. Too stong, you need to bait and lure a little bit more.

        1. If I’m a troll, you’re a dolt. Finesse? Why? This site is littered with uninformed liberal Kool Aid drinkers. I’m trying to be the voice of reason.

      2. Way to give us a reality check of your opinion. How does that make you any better than the climate change believers?

        1. Because I don’t pretend to be “holier than thou” as you leftist global warming freakazoids. You do realize there are two sides to every story.

          1. Who said I was leftist? Let along a leftist warming freakazoid?! But of course you jump to conclusions and name calling, I wouldn’t expect anything else.

            But you’re right, there are two sides to every story. And you are giving your side of the story, which is fine. But why do you have to hate on people that don’t agree with you?

  14. He he he he hahaha hehe……. You dumbasses can’t predict what my bipolar female ass is gonna do next. Can ya? Can ya? Awww look a baby deer. I didn’t think so. Just when you think you have me figured out and you think you know what’s going on, Bang! I’ll pull the rug out from under you. Aww look at that birdie family they’re so sweet! Don’t think I won’t destroy you for fun, I will. Aww look, a boy scout camp out with hundreds of kids having a great time in New Mexico. How cute… I think it’s time for a serious lightning storm out there, catch ya all later!

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