This Is One of the Most Mediocre Sixers Stories You Will Ever Read
pic via Ken Murphy, Flickr
When Andrew Porter of CBS Philly (and its hideous, annoying pop-under ads and auto-refreshes) wrote “this was the most exciting Sixers piece I’ve read in a long time,” I figured there was one of two ways it go could: 1) “YES, DANIEL BRYAN. YES! We’re finally coming out of the worst blogging week ever!” Or 2), “This town sucks right now.”
Porter was citing an advanced metric-heavy piece by Ben Alamar of ESPN.com in which Alamar, um, concluded that the Sixers have a precisely 50% chance of being, you know, mediocre or thereabouts next season.* HARDCORE, YO.
The Philadelphia 76ers and the Minnesota Timberwolves are locked in a battle for the top pick in the 2015 NBA draft. BPI now gives each team a 21 percent chance at the right to choose between the likes of Jahlil Okafor or Emmanuel Mudiay.
…
The closest comparison to this 76ers team is the 2002-03 Denver Nuggets — and this is where Philly fans might have some hope. [Like the Sixers] that Nuggets team had the worst offense in the BPI database, but a defense that was more than two points above average. Denver also had five players 25 years old or younger who played at least 900 minutes, and the 76ers are on track to have at least seven.
The Nuggets then added Carmelo Anthony with the third pick in the 2003 draft and immediately improved to a slightly above average team, finishing the season 11th in BPI. This, of course, is exactly the path the 76ers are hoping to follow: developing their young players and using their draft assets and cap space to make a big jump. In fact, there are 14 teams in the BPI database that follow this general pattern (terrible offense and good defense), and 50 percent of them improved enough the next season to be at least average, and 57 percent were above average two seasons later.
So you’re telling me… there’s about a 50-50 shot that the Sixers will improve to be an average-to-slightly above average team over the next two seasons if their 21% chance of landing the top pick in the draft materializes so they can then lose in the first round nine out of 10 years a la the Nuggets? OH BOY! A palpable hue of anticipation fills my waistband.
This town sucks right now.
*The point of his piece, as best as I can tell, is that young teams with good defenses and bad offenses (Sixers) have easier paths to success than teams with the inverse (Timberwolves). Makes sense. It’s easier to find instant offensive talent than it is to unearth the building blocks of a cohesive defensive in the draft. But still, this is about as exciting as betting on whether a giraffe will be able to reach the leaves on a particular zoo branch. “Ohhh! Ohhh! He’s gon… nope. Ah well, maybe next time. Cheerio.”
