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Happy Thursday to all DFS players.
Today, like all days, we’ll be running through DraftKings and FanDuel plays for the MLB. Yesterday I gave you some really solid plays that I hope benefited you. They certainly worked out for me.
Today’s best Vegas lines:
Houston (-159) vs Baltimore: O/U – 7.5
Boston (-139) vs Minnesota: O/U – 8.5
New York Mets (-129) vs Arizona: O/U – 8.5
Texas (-125) vs Chicago White Sox: O/U – 8.5
I will be straight with you: the games today appear to be a minefield for pitching. There are so many things working against everyone in the games today, so we’re going to be taking chances on cheaper pitching and hoping we make up for it on the offensive side. Keep in mind, when there’s not great pitching, that should mean there is better hitting. Out of all of the games above, I would say Dallas Keuchel for Houston is the safest play. The Astros have been playing well, the Orioles have been struggling. With an O/U of 7.5, Keuchel should get you the points you need. While he doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside, he’s consistent with how far he goes in games. If you want upside, you can certainly go Harvey. He never gets a win, and the D-backs have a scary offense, but if he is on point tonight, look for him to outperform everyone else on the slate. I’d certainly use him in the 2 pitcher format on DK and for GPPs as well.
My pitcher ranks based on Vegas lines, value & price:
- Dallas Keuchel(DK: $10000, FD: $9800)
- Gio Gonzalez(DK: $8500, FD: $8700)
- Matt Harvey(DK: $10400, FD: $10700)
- Jake Arrieta(DK: $9600, FD: $9600)
- Aaron Harang(DK: $6800, FD: $7900)
- Chris Young(DK: $4900, FD: $5000)
For GPPs, I really like Chris Young. The Royals are slightly favored, at home and the O/U is 7.5. The Indians have some decent numbers against him, but if you get double digit points from him at that price, you’ll be laughing your way to the bank. Another name to consider would be the contrarian option of Jesse Hahn (DK: $6100). He doesn’t dazzle you, but he’s gone at least 5 innings every start. He is consistent. With them playing a potent offense in Detroit, he won’t be highly owned and could produce similar consistent results as your SP2 on DraftKings today.
Pitchers to stay away from today:
Trevor Bauer – There won’t be a Bauer outage tonight. The Kansas City Royals just flat out hit and they don’t strike out. Bauer has a problem with walks, and when he’s off, he’s really off. I’d be shocked if he made it through 6 innings and had more than 3-4 strikeouts. Too risky, stay away.
Shane Greene – He just underwhelms me. The Athletics are a much different team when they’re facing RHP, and Greene does not have swing and miss stuff. He’s got bust written all over him today. Stay away.
Moving over to the hitting side…
The below names are people you should be targeting for value today, as they have great numbers versus the opposing pitcher:
Caleb Joseph (DK: $3000, FD: $2200)– Joseph would be a contrarian pick today for GPP formats only. In limited AB, Joseph has 2 hits vs Keuchel, and 1 is a HR.
Stephen Vogt (DK: $4100, FD: $3500)– Vogt hits in the middle of the order and is much better vs RHP. Much like Altuve vs LHP, Vogt is equally as powerful statistically. Vogt sports a .306/.400/1.008 vs RHP to go along with a .421 wOBA. He’s also patient at the plate. He’s a must start for me today in all formats.
David Ortiz (DK: $4500, FD: $2500)– Big day for Papi yesterday. While it seems strange to start a LHB vs LHP, in this case, I would. Milone is garbage and Ortiz has a .429 avg against him with 3 HR in 7 AB. Now that’s upside. He’s also really cheap tonight on both sites.
Adrian Gonzalez (DK: $4700, FD: $4000)– His numbers at home vs RHP is scary good. While he’s not at a torrid pace like earlier in the year, Gonzalez has been playing consistently well. At home vs RHP, Gonzalez is hitting .367/.425/1.147 with a .482 wOBA to go along with it. I love this play tonight.
Jose Altuve (DK: $4800, FD: $3800)– He’s a bit pricey, but when has he let anyone down this year? Altuve in 2015 is sporting a lofty .391/.459/.959 vs lefties to go along with an insane .405 wOBA. Much like yesterday with Pedroia, it’ll be really difficult to find myself picking anyone else today.
Xander Bogaerts (DK: $3900, FD: $2400)– The SS market is very bare tonight. Bogaerts is playing relatively well as of late, and had a big game yesterday afternoon. He offers power & SB upside. I think staying cheap at this position is the best play for all formats.
Yunel Escobar (DK: $3300, FD: $2400)– Has been on fire as of late. He’s a cheap option that has been raking. In addition, he has great numbers vs Arrieta. I like this play today, especially for the price.
Mike Moustakas (DK: $3800, FD: $2600)– Moose is always consistent at the plate. I’m not worried about him vs any pitcher. He’s cheap yet again today. If you want to save some money to load up on outfielders, he is a nice option today once again.
Joey Gallo (DK: $3700, FD: $3300)– Gallo doesn’t seem to be afraid of the spotlight. Everyone was scared to put him in vs Sale last night – guess everyone was wrong. He’s white hot to start his MLB career, so another lefty on the slate shouldn’t scare you off. I’d consider him for GPP only, along with another name to consider: Maikel Franco.
Matt Carpenter (DK: $4400, FD: $3700)– He’s the best cash option for tonight. He is the model of consistency. Carpenter will get on base most nights, so look for him to be the safest play on the board tonight.
Joc Pederson (DK: $4100, FD: $4000)– He’s telling pitchers they couldn’t carry his ‘joc’. This is a must start. How did Joc get priced so low on DK? He even is cheaper than yesterday. It’s really strange that Joc has better numbers vs LHP, but that’s not to say his numbers vs RHP are pedestrian. He currently has a .416 wOBA vs RHP, which is good for being the 3rd best statistical outfielder in the game. Joc is on a Bryce Harper-like tear right now. Wacha is a great pitcher, but it’d find it hard to believe he’s going to have a silent night at the plate.
Seth Smith (DK: $3800, FD: $2500)– He’s hitting at the top of the order vs RHP. Smith sports a .364 average against Ramirez with a HR. He’s still cheap relative to his production, so he is another good option if you’re trying to save some money.
George Springer (DK: $4400, FD: $3600)– I gave him you yesterday and he produced. Today, he’s an absolute steal on DK. The Astros are facing a lefty, and there are a lot of ‘Stros that will be looking to mash. Springer in 9 AB is sporting a .556 average with 1 HR off of Chen. Use him with confidence in all formats.
Bryce Harper (DK: $5100, FD: $5800)– He’s expensive, but he’s worth it. Harper is 8 for 24 with 2 HR in his past 7 games. Brycey-poo has 5 hits in 9 AB vs Arrieta. Arrieta served up a career high 3 HR in his last start – perhaps that trend continues. Look for Bryce to show what the #natitude is all about and have another good game.
As always, please ensure your players are in the lineup tonight, and watch the weather forecasts.