Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Nola was outstanding in his Major League debut last night. Unfortunately, he lost 1-0 (with the only run coming on a home run to the opposing pitcher) because the Phillies’ offense is pathetic and sucks.

One thought on Nola, who looks like the real deal if not for the worry that… he’s going to BLOW OUT HIS GODDAMN ARM within the next year and require Tommy John surgery. Does his arm action remind you of another young, phenom picter? Say, Stephen Strasburg?

Nola_stras

Yeah, that ain’t natural. We all know what happened to Strasburg, on the very same mound. Way too much arm action from Nola, too much whip.

But don’t take it from me. I did a quick Twitter search for “Nola” and “elbow” this morning to see if anyone else noticed what I did, and here are the observations of pitching analyst and “consultant to multiple MLB clients” Chris O’Leary, featured here in New York Magazine, who was live-tweeting Nola’s debut last night:

I’ve reached out to O’Leary for more. But in the meantime, let’s compare that assesment of Nola to what O’Leary wrote about Strasburg in 2011, a year after the Nationals star pitcher underwent Tommy John surgery. According to the dates on his website, O’Leary had been critical of Strasburg’s mechanics for years – comparing him to Mark Prior – dating back to 2008:

The problem isn’t that Stephen Strasburg’s front foot is early; that his front foot lands too soon. There’s nothing you can do about that because the front foot has to get down at some point. Rather, the problem is that Stephen Strasburg’s arm is late; his arm isn’t in the correct position at the moment when his front foot heel plants and his shoulders start rotating.

As the picture below shows, at the moment Stephen Strasburg’s front foot lands, and his shoulders start rotating, his Pitching Arm Side (PAS) forearm, instead of being vertical and at 90 degrees of external rotation, is pretty much horizontal and at 0 degrees of external rotation.

This is caused by the Inverted W in his arm action; it forces his arm to take a longer path to the high-cocked position and creates what is commonly known as a problem with rushing. As a result, his PAS upper arm will externally rotate especially hard and much, which will increase the load on both his elbow and his shoulder.

Now, take what you just read about Strasburg and apply it to… this:

That is the classic inverted W of which O’Leary writes. And it’s virtually identical to the position of Strasburg’s arm upon landing. To me, it appears like Nola’s got even more whip coming from his elbow. Look:

As concerning as Strasburg’s delivery was (and is?), Nola appears to put even more torque on his shoulder and elbow. He’s 22. Arms only put up with that sort of thing for so long.

We’ll have more later. I’m gonna try to talk to O’Leary, maybe get him on the podcast. But just figured I’d spray some cold water on your Nola boner this morning.

UPDATE: Maybe I overstated that Nola has the classic inverted W. Because that distinction belonged to Michael Stutes:

Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Either way, the non-ideal arm angle and all the stress on the elbow and shoulder are present for Nola.