In 2011 and 2012, many of us lamented the decidedly old-school state of our sports teams. The Andy Reid Era was careening to a nasty end. The Phillies were in the process of slamming shut their much talked about window of opportunity. We had yet to even hear the name Joshua Harris. And the Flyers were still chasing big-name, high-priced free agents.

At the same time, there was an undercurrent flowing from the depths of the interwebs into mainstream sports circles, including the front offices. Analytics is the umbrella term for the movement, but one can argue that it encompasses everything from advanced stats to better health and nutrition for athletes. It’s the pragmatic approach to sports which attempts to strip emotion out of all decision making. It has its champions and detractors, which often fall along generational lines– millenials vs. baby boomers, typically. If you’ve seen Moneyball, then you understand the dynamic between new and old thinking.

Philly was old. Everything about our teams’ philosophies was old. Our city had not one front office that bought into newfangled thinking, for better or worse. [At that moment, it was for worse.]

Fast-forward three years: Chip Kelly is a mad scientist, trying to reinvent the way football games are won. The Sixers are losing on purpose, are owned by a billionaire private equity guy (who also owns the Devils), and general managed by the man now synonymous with the most concerted effort to lose games in sports history. The Flyers hired a college coach from out of nowhere and he’s espousing his beliefs about puck control and not finishing checks to hardened OBs like Steve Coates. And the Phillies have actually talked about Sabermetrics in press conferences and just hired a 34-ish-year-old GM with an Economics degree.*

We’ve swung so hard to the other side of the fence, in such a short period of time. How is it working out?

*No one knows his birthday. Wikipedia just lists “1980.” Like a Dominican pitcher with a receding hairline who gets treated for fibromyalgia but swears he’s only 32.

 

Eagles

Situation: The early returns on Chip Kelly’s reign were strong: two 10-6 seasons, a home playoff game, offensive records, accolades, and an on-field product that looked fresh and invigorated to those of us used to watching Andy Reid call seven-yard crossing routes on third-and-eight. Chip was the Irish Spring to our Safeguard. But now things have stalled.

Analysis: We are at an inflection point. This season and its results will go a long way in deciding Kelly’s future. That’s not to say he’ll be fired if the Eagles don’t make the playoffs. Jeffrey Lurie invested too much in him last offseason to not give this thing some runway. But, the league has caught up with Chip. Opponents have found ways to slow, or completely stop, his up-tempo offense. Coaches around the league are quickly hiring nutritionists and sports science-y staff, much like Kelly did from Day 1. His simplistic approach to offense, based on matchups and mismatches, has become predictable, and in the NFL, where there aren’t huge gaps in talent between rival players, it’s much harder to exploit mismatches than it is in college. What’s worse, Chip’s the GM, and he didn’t give himself the players he needed to be successful this season. Andy Reid isn’t having much success with the Chiefs, so it kind of negates the old school-new school argument here. If anything, coaches around the league mimicking some of Chip’s initiatives – the focus on science and health – is proof that his philosophies work to some degree. But, ironically, it may be actual coaching ability and evaluation skills on which Chip is judged. All of his offseason roster moves are defensible, but thus far they haven’t made him look good, and his problems have been compounded by some piss-poor game-planning and decision-making early in the season.

 

Phillies

Situation: The Phillies are just now entering their new era. Sure, Pete Mackanin, a vestige of old Phillies, is still the manager, for now, mostly because he did a good job with a shit squad last year, and perhaps partly because the Phillies can see how Brett Brown seems to be getting antsy overseeing a rebuild and they didn’t want to place the same burden on their manager of the future, who most likely won’t be Mackanin. The entire executive suite has been swept clean, officially or through brute force. John Middleton is in David Montgomery’s seat. Andy MacPhail has one cheek in Montgomery’s and one in new GM Matt Klentak’s. There is an obvious focus on moving into the present and using analytics – which, to date, are more valuable in baseball than any other sport – but with an appreciation for scouting. There are promising prospects, some of whom are already contributing with the big club. Massive contracts handed out by Ruben Amaro are slowly but surely coming off the books (holy shit Ryan Howard still has another year!). The Phils have money and, soon, flexibility.

Analysis: You can’t judge anything the Phillies have done because there are no actual results yet. I like their philosophy, a lot. What we’ll see in this post is that swinging so wildly and quickly into the future, almost dismissing learned intuition, can be a risky endeavor. There is a place in the game – in all sports – for lifers with innate knowledge. Numbers can’t solve everything. The Phillies get that. From everything they’ve said in recent press conferences they seem to understand that the best recipe for success is balancing analytics and scouting. There’s a lot of work to be done, but, honestly (and maybe only because nothing has gone wrong yet), I think the Phillies are positioning themselves best to succeed in the long-term… with the exception of maybe…

 

Sixers

Situation: They stink. They stink intentionally. Two years of tanking have so far resulted in only two impact draft picks who are currently playing and contributing: Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, the latter of which is averaging 20 and 5 through three NBA games. Dario Saric is, maybe, a year away. Joel Embiid is glugging sweet soda drinks. Nik Stauskas can shoot and looks like me. And I’m not sure who else is on the team. Brett Brown may or may not be getting antsy about that whole competing thing. The front office behaves in a way that can either be considered resolute or obnoxious.

Analysis: Though trading the rookie of the year (Michael Carter-Williams), kicking the can down the road on draft picks, and Joel Embiid’s re-injury test the patience of a patient and incredibly understanding fan base, things are actually looking up for the Sixers. They have four first round draft picks next year (if they keep them all). Saric, who might be the best player the Sixers have under team control (somewhat, I guess), says he plans on coming over next season. Okafor looks like the real deal. Noel will be a fine rebounder and defender. Embiid, at this point, should be considered a bonus. The Sixers’ tank has proven that there’s a dark side to high-risk, high-reward strategies. There have been several hiccups along the way that have cost them at least two years until they’re truly competitive. Maddeningly, ownership’s value in the team has more than doubled despite the struggles. That means the risk falls solely on the fans, players and coaches, who are merely collateral damage should the plan go to shit as ownership cashes in. The Sixers are playing the most dangerous game of any local team. They went balls-out with progressive tactics. If it pays off, they could be an NBA dynasty (no joke). If it fails, Joshua Harris and Co. will have wasted a decade of basketball in the city and the careers of several players and coaches… all while earning a steep return on their investment. Though we are beginning to see runway lights through the clouds, criticism is warranted until the Sixers show that they’re ready to get serious about winning.

 

Flyers

Situation: The team doesn’t have a second line and is suffering the after effects of Paul Holmgren’s life as a general manager. The fact that he was “promoted” to President – a business leader of an organization who admittedly doesn’t know anything about business – still highly concerns me. He’s Ron Hextall’s boss. Hextall, like perhaps Andy MacPhail, seems to value analytics and scouting equally. The Flyers have progressed to be a modern team. They hired Dave Hakstol, a relative unknown whose early results are, well, awful.

Analysis: I wrote last week that you can’t judge a coach on just a handful of games. But, with essentially the same team Craig Berube had last year, Hakstol has not as of yet shown any signs that his way is better. Where Chip Kelly announced his arrival with a resounding crescendo of football intercourse on Monday Night Football, Hakstol announced his with… some of the worst offensive hockey I’ve ever seen. Things take time, but me thinks the Flyers, who historically have a quick trigger finger, would be quick to cut ties with Hakstol before the end of the season if he proves to be a Bill Barber type incapable of leading a professional team. There’s a real concern – to me, anyway – that millionaire vets will have a hard time listening to a coach who has literally no experience in major professional hockey. You could say the same about Kelly, who experienced similar success in college as Hakstol, but he at least came into this thing as a sports celebrity credited with partially reinventing the game. That matters to players. I can’t help but look at the bench and wonder what, say, Claude Giroux is thinking when he takes instruction from Hakstol. I’m in no way saying that Hakstol won’t work out. It’s too early to draw any conclusions. But I don’t think he’ll be given the long leash afforded to Kelly and Hinkie. Nor should he. Meanwhile, Hextall has made some delicious cap-saving moves, but the Flyers still lack direction.

The point here is that just three years ago we were a city with its teams stuck in the past. Now, you can argue that three of the four have, in ways, moved to the cutting edge of their respective sports (not the Phillies). Thus far, the results have been terrible. No team made the playoffs last season. It’s very possible no team will make the playoffs this season. Things take time, but there aren’t a ton of positive signs.

That said, all four teams are in different stages of modernizing, and the only one you can judge is the Eagles, who are now in year three and have regressed.

I don’t want to say careful what you wish for, because all of these situations have differing levels of promise. But, there’s an argument to be made that everyone was just a bit too eager for change.